Exodus to Conn.
USPS: Nearly 10K New Yorkers changed addresses to state from March to June, supporting trends described by Realtors
Editor’s note: This is the first in a Hearst Connecticut Media series examining the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the state’s real estate market and community resources.
In large numbers, New Yorkers have changed their addresses in recent months in favor of Connecticut ZIP codes, according to data from the United States Postal Service.
Since March, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the region, nearly 10,000 New York residents requested an address change with USPS and decamped for the Nutmeg State, according to data obtained by Hearst Connecticut Media. That’s up from roughly 1,200 requests over the same period in 2019.
The data supports the trend real estate agents have described throughout the public health emergency, which hit New York especially hard. More than 200,000 New York residents have fallen sick and more than 17,000
have died in the city of 8 million.
“I think when (the pandemic) hit, at the beginning, I was thinking, ‘There goes 2020 for real estate, what am I going to do with my career?’ ” said Craig Oshrin, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker of Fairfield. “I was fearful at the very beginning. And there was about a two-week period where that was what we lived through. And then you started to see this momentum through April and then May started to heat up and it hasn’t let up.”
The USPS also noted the unprecedented uptick.
“There has been a significant increase in changes of addresses so far this year compared to previous years,” a USPS spokesman said Friday.
Connecticut, while also among the hardest-hit COVID-19 states, is far less densely populated than New York City, even in the most congested locales in Fairfield and New Haven counties.
Property taxes are also lower in much of Connecticut compared to parts of New York, like Westchester County. As people continue to work from home in droves, commuting into the city from the suburbs has become less of an issue. And in the suburbs of Connecticut, buyers are getting more bang for their buck than they would in the city and more room to spread out during quarantine, Oshrin said.
“It’s an emotional and a financial move,” he said.
The New York transplants have settled predominantly in lower Fairfield County, according to USPS data, but some of the state’s outskirts have also seen increases.
In Fairfield County, the state’s most populous area, nearly 5,000 address changes from New York occurred between March and early June this year, compared to 765 during that same period in 2019.
Requests from New York into New Haven County increased from 241 to 1,058 during that span. This year, there were 2,116 address changes from New York to Litchfield County, home to just over 180,000 people, compared to just 61 during that time last year.
According to the USPS, Middlesex and Windham counties had zero changeof-address requests from New York residents between March and early June 2019, but had 292 and 200, respectively, during the same period this year. And Hartford County was up from 87 in 2019 to 863 in 2020.
The USPS does not release data for ZIP codes where 10 or fewer address changes occurred, due to privacy concerns.
The numbers don’t necessarily reflect new homebuyers coming into the state and include individuals and entire family units. Short- or long-term renters, or those who own multiple properties and are shifting their primary residence, may also request a change in address.
However, the data indicates the people were planning to stay in Connecticut for at least a little while, since these were requests for address changes and not just those looking to have their mail temporarily forwarded.
USPS data showing the number of change-of-address requests to leave Connecticut during the pandemic was not immediately available.
‘This is like a wave coming in’
According to Paul Breunich, president and CEO of William Pitt and Julia B. Fee Sotheby’s International Realty, an independent analysis conducted by his brokerage of New York City buyers confirms trends evident in the USPS data.
Since mid-April, 33 percent of buyers in Fairfield County, 31 percent in Litchfield County and 9 percent on the Shoreline have come from New York City, the analysis found.
“I’ve been in business for 30 years — this is a market that I have never seen before from a demand standpoint,” Breunich said. “We have our normal demand, but then we’ve got an unforeseen demand coming from New York City. Our opinion is it’s a direct result of the pandemic and also the social unrest that’s been going on.”
The sudden interest has sent ripples through the market, several brokers said.
“We were low on inventory anyway — now we’re really low,” said Tammy Felenstein, a real estate agent with Halstead in Stamford and first vice president of the Connecticut Association of Realtors. “Stamford is down nearly half of where we’d normally be. Every town is down about 30 to 50 percent of its inventory. And houses coming on the market have multiple offers.”
Oshrin said many of his clients, even with properties that hadn’t been moving, are now gaining attention for their homes and getting into contract higher than their asking price.
“I’m putting a property on the market this coming week in Southport,” Oshrin said. “And I said to myself, this is the one time my seller is going to get a chance to try his magic number.”
According to Felenstein, those departing New York cover several demographic groups — though she’s seen a large number of families. Certain locales, she said, appeared more popular, at least until recently.
“Honestly, Stamford probably is not having quite as good of a reaction, because back in April, it was a hot spot for the coronavirus,” Felenstein said. “So I think people coming from Manhattan, especially affluent people, were looking to go to more tony towns — like Darien and New Canaan.”
Darien First Selectman Jayme Stevenson said during any summer there is an increase in New York license plates on cars driving around town. This year, however, the volume has noticeably increased. While she said her office has received some complaints about New Yorkers using town beaches, she said the new arrivals have generally been welcomed.
“We always welcome new people to come to Darien,” Stevenson said. “There will be challenges we have to address with any population increase, but I’m excited about the opportunities.”
In particular, Stevenson said she’s eager to see more detailed data on who of the new arrivals has changed their address to Darien for the long-term. Those making permanent moves could have an impact on the public schools. But more information is needed, she said.
Breunich, too, cautioned against putting too much stock in preliminary data. More answers are likely to emerge and, while certain ZIP codes may be experiencing the initial influx, many Connecticut municipalities are likely to see new residents as a result of the pandemic.
“They’re hitting all the towns,” Breunich said. “This is like a wave coming in, it’s not picking which towns it hits. I think individual town info is not really relevant at this time.”
But has the wave crested? Or will it continue to rise?
“That’s the crystal ball question,” Breunich said. “My opinion is that it’s here to last for the foreseeable future.”
“I’ve been in business for 30 years — this is a market that I have never seen before from a demand standpoint. We have our normal demand, but then we’ve got an unforeseen demand coming from New York City. Our opinion is it’s a direct result of the pandemic and also the social unrest that’s been going on.”
Paul Breunich, president and CEO of William Pitt and Julia B. Fee Sotheby’s International Realty