Russian invasion reorders West’s views on cost of war

WASHINGTON — Not long after winding down 20 years of war, President Joe Biden now finds the United States entrenched in a conflict in Ukraine, even without sending in U.S. troops, that could have a more far-reaching effect on a larger cross section of Americans than Afghanistan or Iraq ever did.

Fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq cost the lives of more than 6,900 U.S. troops and more than 7,500 U.S. contractors, and American spending topped $2.3 trillion. But those wars had little impact on how the vast majority of Americans lived their daily lives. It was a 20-year period where people experienced both the Great Recession and the longest U.S. economic expansion, touchstones that were little influenced by the two grinding conflicts.

Now, five months after the end of the war in Afghanistan, the longest in U.S. history, Americans are entering complicated terrain with the Russian invasion in Ukraine. While Biden promises there will be no American forces on the ground there, he acknowledged the war waged by Russian President Vladimir Putin could have real impact on Americans’ pocketbooks.

“A Russian dictator, invading a foreign country, has costs around the world,” Biden told Americans in his State of the Union address on Tuesday.

The financial tumult of the most significant military campaign in Europe since World War II is already being felt.

This past week saw U.S. crude oil prices surge about 13 percent to roughly $113 per barrel and the cost of natural gas reached a record in Europe as the war stoked market fears about a supply shock.

Key stock market indices, volatile for weeks, saw further losses as French President Emmanuel Macron warned “the worst is yet to come” after a lengthy phone call on Thursday with Putin.

Yet, in Washington — as well as in European capitals — there are signs of growing resolve to confront Putin and of a willingness to take on some economic pain in the process.

It’s a markedly different tone than in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks that spurred the Afghanistan War. Then-President George W. Bush implored Americans then to “stand against terror by going back to work” and suggested Americans “get down to Disney World” as his administration tried to restore faith in the U.S. airline industry. Over the next 20 years, U.S. servicemembers, including more than 52,000 wounded in action, and their families would largely carry the burden.

In Washington, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif, got ahead of the White House in recent days in pushing for sanctions directly targeting Russia’s energy sector, the lifeblood of Putin’s economy. The administration has been hesitant to target Russian oil out of concern such a move would also imperil the economies of the U.S. and Western allies.

“Ban it,” Pelosi said of Russian oil imports.

Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, introduced a bipartisan bill to do just that. The legislation would halt Russian oil imports to the U.S. by declaring a national emergency, something Biden could also do on his own.

“If there was a poll being taken and they say, ‘Joe, would you support 10 cents more a gallon for the people of Ukraine?’ … I would gladly,” Manchin said.

Whether that view is widely held in the United States could go a long way to determine if Biden’s popularity will rebound after sinking to dismal levels.

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said the sanctions on Russia could raise interest rates, slow the economy and drive up inflation and gas prices. He suggested Americans were prepared to sacrifice.

“This comes at cost,” Romney said. “Nowhere near the cost of blood that would be involved if we let (Putin) run amok but it is not without sacrifice.”

Public polling suggests Americans believe that the U.S. may have to do more to help Ukraine. Forty-five percent of Americans said in the days after Russia invaded that the U.S. was doing too little to help Ukraine. Another 37 percent said the U.S. was doing the right amount; just 7 percent said efforts were too much, according to a Quinnipiac poll this past week.