Study: Fewer Conn. homes at risk for rebuild in storm surge
As the first major storm of the 2019 hurricane season made landfall in Louisiana, an updated study suggests Connecticut’s waterfront homes are better situated to survive any storm surge driven by a weak hurricane — though just as many remain susceptible to a storm packing the punch of 2012’s Sandy.
As of Friday afternoon, the National Weather Service predicted Tropical Storm Barry would reach the Louisiana coast as a Category 1 hurricane, with the storm’s danger compounded by heavy deluges in the preceding days that creating flooding.
Should it sustain the 74 mph wind threshold that classifies a hurricane, Barry would become the first of 2019. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts anywhere from four to eight this year, in line with the average season of six hurricanes.
In a recent statebystate study of storm surge risks posed by hurricanes, CoreLogic estimated a 4 percent decline from a year ago in the number of Connecticut homes at risk of reconstruction in any Category I storm, estimating nearly 6,200 homes faced that possibility today. A Category 2 storm would menace more than 29,000 shoreline houses in Connecticut with destruction, representing a 2.4 percent improvement from CoreLogic’s modeling from 2018.
CoreLogic determined increased numbers of Connecticut residences are at peril, however, in a storm surge of any Category 3 hurricane, the level reached by Sandy in 2012 over the Atlantic Ocean prior to generating a massive, tideassisted storm surge up Long Island Sound even as its winds abated below hurricane speeds.
In the seven years since Sandy, many waterfront property owners have rebuilt their homes on elevated foundations or stilts to reduce the odds of losing them in any future storms. But the CoreLogic estimates reveal the state has a long way to go, though not as far as Florida, Louisiana, Texas and New York which all saw increased numbers of homes at peril of a storm surge in weaker hurricane.
In any surge of water driven by a historic storm like Sandy, CoreLogic calculated, Connecticut has more than 47,000 homes at risk of damage requiring a major reconstruction — and any Category 4 storm like Hurricane Florence that managed to sustain its winds as far north as New England could imperil 68,000 residential structures in Connecticut, a slight increase from last year.
As of 2017, less than 38,500 Connecticut homeowners had coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program according to the most recent data posted online by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, about 1,350 fewer than in 2016 as memories of Sandy’s destruction faded a little further.
Karen Clark, CEO of the Bostonbased catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark & Co., reminded in her own firm’s June study of the 2019 hurricane season that property owners — and insurers — can bank on luck only so far, citing last year’s Hurricane Michael as a good example.
“Hurricanes are like real estate — it’s location, location, location,” Clark stated. “Michael ... was just upgraded to a category 5 hurricane and it did make landfall in the Florida Panhandle but the insured losses are likely to be less than $10 billion. If you took that exact same storm and had it make landfall on Miami, the losses would be more than 10 times that number.”