Model predicts Sept. virus spike — but not in CT
Coronavirus cases are expected to spike in September across the United States but stay flat in Connecticut, according to one of the most often cited transmission models.
Both deaths from COVID-19 and identified cases are expected to rise slowly in the United States at least, based on projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
But those projections show deaths and cases spiking in September. There should be 391 deaths each day from COVID-19 in late August, and then more than 1,000 a day by the end of September.
“I think it's a mistake to talk about a second wave because the fact is, we're still having thousands or tens of thousands of new infections a day around the country with case rates increasing in many communities,” former CDC Director Tom Frienden told Hearst Connecticut Media. “People have just begun saying that they're just tired of staying at home.”
The University of Washington projections do offer a range: the best-case scenario shows fewer than 100 deaths per day in the United States by Oct. 1 — or as many as 4,382.
But not in Connecticut. There have been, as of Thursday evening, a total of 4,146 deaths in Connecticut from coronavirus, with 44,461 confirmed cases. The University of Washington models show those numbers rising only incrementally for the foreseeable future.
The total number of deaths from COVID-19 in
Connecticut is expected to fall between 4,174 and 4,402 by Oct. 1.
Connecticut has seen a continued decline in confirmed cases, deaths and hospitalizations from coronavirus, even while the United States topped 2 million cases by Thursday morning.
Many states have seen a sharp increase since deciding to end lockdown protocols.
Arizona health officials said there was a huge spike in cases about 10 days after Gov. Doug Ducey ended his state’s stay-at-home order and allowed businesses to reopen.
“It seems pretty clear to me that what we’re seeing is directly related to the end of the stay-at-home order,” Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association, told the Associated Press.
Texas saw a 42 percent increase in hospitalizations since Memorial Day weekend, with 2,100 patients in the hospital for the virus, the most since the pandemic began.
North Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas, as well as other states, have seen a surge in cases and hospitalizations in recent days.
“It's quite valid to consider the economic impact of COVID control,” Frieden said. “The economic and social considerations are quite valid to consider in terms of decisions of how and when to reopen. But there are tough, tough decisions in terms of what gets opened when and how.”
The IHME model is not the only one predicting a surge in COVID-related deaths and cases by the end of summer. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told the Today Show that the numbers are “concerning.”
“It is about two weeks after Memorial Day that we’re seeing this and this is what we were worried about,” he said.
The IHME model was one of those used by the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, and was cited by Dr. Deborah Birx during a press conference on March 31.