Experts: Hurricane season to be active as it enters its peak
In the spring, forecasters predicted a busy 2022 hurricane season for the United States. But the summer's calm start says the opposite.
As of Aug. 28, only three named storms have formed in the Atlantic Basin and the season hasn't seen one reemerge since July 3, when Colin dissipated. The average date of the first hurricane is Aug. 11. But for the first time in seven years, no hurricane had formed in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico byAug. 15.
Though most storms are no longer hurricanes by the time the reach Connecticut, forecasters told Hearst Connecticut Media that residents living in Connecticut and the rest of the East Coast should still brace for a stormy few months as weather conditions become more conducive to hurricanes and the Atlantic enters peak hurricane season, Aug. 20 to Oct. 10.
“People shouldn't let their guard down. Even though it's been quiet in August, there's been plenty of hurricane seasons that have been quiet in August and then really busy in September,” said Eric Blake, the acting branch chief for the Hurricane Specialist Unit at the National Hurricane Center. “There's impatience out there, even in the hurricane community. But the past suggests, this is more noise than a signal.”
The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is monitoring two disturbances in the central Atlantic as of Saturday night. The first disturbance has a 50 percent chance of formation within five days, according to the National Hurricane Center, and the second has a 20 percent chance.
The NOAA's annual-mid season update issued Aug. 4 by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, also states that atmospheric and oceanic conditions are still in place for an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasters slightly reduced the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent, a little less than May's prediction of 65 percent.
“The quiet August shouldn't change expectations for the season at all,” Blake said.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, and other university researchers lowered their numbers a little bit in his Aug. 4 forecast to 18 predicted named storms, which include the three that have developed so far. The average from 1991 to 2020 is 14.4. Connecticut has a 32 percent chance of experiencing the impact of a named storm, according to Colorado State University's 2022 forecast. Klotzbach said that would be impressive to get 15 more storms, but it could happen as conditions become more conducive to hurricanes and the Atlantic's susceptibility to storms increases.
“I think it's safe to say September will be busier than August,” Klotzbach said.
Klotzbach also said this time of year is more unpredictable.
“Honestly, this time of year, the areas you're watching that you think are going to form may not and some other completely random thing you're not paying attention to may develop. Things change quickly this time of year,” Klotzbach said.
One reason hurricane season has a late start is the dry air and dust coming off of the Sahara. Dust tends to squash thunderstorms, which are the building blocks of hurricanes, and the dry air is beginning to moisten up, Klotzbach said.
Another reason is the level of wind shear, or change in wind direction, speed and height in the atmosphere, said Gary Lessor,chief meteorologist at the Connecticut Weather Center at Western Connecticut State University in Danbury. Wind shear hinders the development of a hurricane, which needs calm winds and warm ocean water to form, he said.
Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and abovenormal sea-surface temperatures are setting the state for an active season in the area, according to the NOAA.“They just basically want to be left alone to churn in the ocean and strengthen,” Lessor said.
Klotzbach said while strong storms are less frequent in New England as opposed to areas in lower latitudes, the damage is substantial due to the number of trees that come down due to the high winds and rain, warranting a high level of preparation.
Tropical Storm Isaias hit Connecticut in August 2020 and caused $21 million in public infrastructure damages, as well as more than 750,000 power outages in the state.“They're not highfrequency events, so you couldn't get hurricane landfalls in New England every year, but the hurricanes going on can certainly cause tremendous impacts. Depending on where you are,” Klotzbach said.