What to expect in the New Hampshire primaries, who will be tested, challenged
WASHINGTON — The race for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations will converge in New Hampshire on Tuesday in the first primary election of the season — though on the Democratic side, the contest may count only for bragging rights.
The Republican primary will test former President Donald Trump’s front-runner status in a state he carried by a comfortable margin in the 2016 primary but has a considerably more moderate electorate than the one that delivered him a big win in the Iowa caucuses.
It will also be a test for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who wants to establish herself as the main alternative to Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who edged Haley for second place in Iowa, is now focusing his efforts on South Carolina, after two scheduled New Hampshire debates were canceled.
Trump has had a consistent lead in the polls, with Haley, a former South Carolina governor, appearing to be in the strongest position among his rivals.
In the Democratic primary, President Joe Biden won’t appear on the ballot, since the contest violates the national party rules he pushed for, but supporters have mounted a write-in campaign on his behalf. The Biden campaign has not endorsed the write-in effort. Among the Democratic candidates whose names will appear on the ballot are U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and 2020 candidate Marianne Williamson.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
The New Hampshire presidential primaries will be held on Tuesday. The last polls in the state close at 8 p.m. ET, although polls in most of the state close at 7 p.m. ET and some close at 7:30 p.m. ET. In tiny Dixville Notch, which has only a handful of residents, polls open at midnight ET and close a few minutes later once all voters have cast a ballot.
The Associated Press will provide coverage for both the Democratic and the Republican presidential primaries. The Republican primary ballot will list the names of 24 candidates, including DeSantis, Haley and Trump. The ballot also includes the names of candidates who have dropped out, such as Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy and others. The
Democratic ballot will list the names of 21 candidates, including Phillips and Williamson. Biden will not be listed on the ballot.
Registered party members may vote only in their party’s primary. In other words, registered Democrats may vote only in the Democratic primary, and registered Republicans may vote only in the Republican primary. Independent or unaffiliated voters may vote in either primary. New voters may register on primary day at a polling site, but the deadline to change party affiliation for voters who are already registered was in October. Seventeen-year-olds who will turn 18 by the November general election may vote in the primary.
For Republicans, statewide primary results will be used to determine how many of New
Hampshire’s 22 Republican National Convention delegates each candidate has won. Delegates are allocated to candidates in proportion to their share of the statewide vote, although a candidate must receive at least 10 percent of the vote to qualify for delegates. Any unallocated delegates are awarded to the statewide winner. Unlike some other states, New Hampshire Republican delegates are not allocated by congressional district.
For Democrats, no delegates will be allocated based on the results of the primary, according to the Democratic National Committee, which governs the nomination process.
As of Dec. 28, 2023, there were about 873,000 registered voters in New Hampshire. Registered Republicans make up 31 percent of voters, compared with 30 percent for Democrats. Independents or unaffiliated voters comprise 39 percent of all voters.
In recent Democratic presidential primaries in New Hampshire, turnout was 43 percent of eligible voters — those who are registered as Democrats or who are unaffiliated — in 2020 and 41 percent in 2016. On the Republican side, turnout was 23 percent of eligible voters in 2020, when Trump was running for reelection, and 44 percent in 2016, when Trump first ran.
Pre-Election Day voting is not particularly popular in New Hampshire. In the 2020 primaries, ballots cast before Election Day made up only 7 percent of Democratic primary votes and 4 percent of Republican primary votes.