An assignment for Haar
To the editor:
Re: “State losing thousands, yet gaining population” (March 24 Dan Haar column).
Dan Haar’s analysis and commentary is both informative and concerning. He presents the question whether, now that the pandemic is over, Connecticut is once again experiencing negative population trends. I suggest he now turn his analytical skills to another trend-line that may also have been merely interrupted by the pandemic.
Internal Revenue Service data shows that, between 2016 and 2021, Connecticut was among the states that lost the most in taxable adjusted gross income (AGI) as a result of net domestic out-migration. Our state lost a cumulative total of more than $7.6 billion in those years. Other big losers were New York (-$81.9b), California ($72.6b), Illinois (-$42.4b), New Jersey (-$18.6b), Massachusetts (-$13.1b), Maryland (-$10.8b) and Pennsylvania (-$10.4b).
The top gaining states were Florida (+$129.1b), Texas (+30.0b), Arizona (+$22.2b), North Carolina (+$19.9b) and South Carolina (+$18.4b).
A major factor in the loss of taxable AGI in all the losing states, including Connecticut, was this: The average income of those leaving was substantially higher than the average income of those arriving. The reverse was true for the states that gained taxable AGI.
But Connecticut’s steady loss of taxable AGI was stanched by the pandemic. Our state suffered no net outmigration of taxable AGI between 2020 and 2021 (and actually enjoyed a tiny percentage gain), while New York lost nearly $24.5 billion of AGI in that single year. Those two statistics are no doubt related, as many New Yorkers decamped for the more open spaces of Connecticut during the pandemic. And those arriving from New York were, on average, relatively affluent.
Dan Haar’s helpful chart shows that, in 2022 and 2023, post-pandemic Connecticut is once again suffering from net domestic outmigration — though not as badly as in the 10 years prior to the pandemic. Here’s an important question to be addressed: Has our state also resumed its annual loss of taxable AGI? I’m not able to find IRS data for 2022 and 2023, which may not yet be available. But perhaps Mr. Haar can look into that. Frank Barron
Greenwich