Did Trump back the wrong horse in Senate primary?
One key question about Tuesday’s statewide primary election: How much clout does former President Trump have in Ohio?
Trump endorsed GOP candidate J.D. Vance, a Middletown native who is the author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” to be Ohio Republicans’ U.S. Senate nominee. If Trump has the oomph he had when Ohioans twice supported him for president, Vance should be in.
Trouble is, besides Vance, at least two other candidates are also leading the GOP’s Senate pack: Entrepreneur Mike Gibbons and ex-State Treasurer Josh Mandel. It appears there’s nothing Gibbons won’t spend, and Mandel won’t say, to land the nomination. Meanwhile, Vance is busy eating the nasty words he once used to describe Trump.
Also seeking the Senate nomination are state
Sen. Matt Dolan, chair of the state Senate’s budget-writing Finance Committee, who usually seems to be the only adult in the room; former Republican State Chair Jane Timken; and Neil Patel and Mark Pukita, who are businesspeople. Ohio Democrats’ likely Senate nominee will be U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, from Warren.
If Trump has backed the right horse, then Ohio’s GOP insiders will kowtow even more than they do now to the former president. If not, Ohio Republicans will inch away.
Democrats have from time to time unseated Republican senators — then-Sen. Mike DeWine in 2006, bested by Democrat Sherrod Brown — but they’ve been less successful in capturing seats when a Senate incumbent isn’t on the ballot, and that’s the case now with Sen. Rob Portman retiring.
Here’s a second big question: Will now-Gov. DeWine draw at least 50% of the GOP gubernatorial primary vote, bolstering him to face either of two Democratic ex-mayors — Dayton’s Nan Whaley or Cincinnati’s John Cranley — in November?
Four years ago, in a primary contest with then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, DeWine drew 59.8% of the GOP vote. This time, DeWine has three foes: Former
U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, former state Rep. Ron Hood and Canal Winchester farmer Joe Blystone.
It’s hard to believe, but the intra-GOP rap on DeWine is that he’s not conservative enough. To some on the right, to succeed — which DeWine did as to COVID-19 — evidently is to fail. That DeWine is 100% anti-abortion also seems to count for little among his GOP critics. That makes Renacci the natural beneficiary of anti-DeWine protest votes.
An underwhelming primary showing by DeWine would, at the very least, energize the Democratic gubernatorial nominee Unseating an incumbent Republican governor in Ohio isn’t easy; Democrats last did it in 1958.
But if Republicans are divided, it can happen — as GOP insiders well know. They also know that if Trump picked the wrong horse in the senatorial primary, that will shake up politics in Ohio — and, maybe, even somewhat nationally.