It’s not easy to predict politics in a post-Roe world
Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was a passionate advocate for abortion rights, but she was also one of Roe v. Wade’s most effective critics. “My criticism of Roe is that it seemed to have stopped the momentum on the side of change,” she said, explaining that abortion rights were gaining ground when Roe froze the democratic process and gave opponents a poorly reasoned decision to focus on.
If the Supreme Court overturns Roe along the lines of a leaked draft opinion — still a big “if ” — the issue will move back to the democratic process, fought out by elected politicians. But because of Roe’s harmful effect, that process won’t look anything like the politics of 50 years ago.
Roe strengthened the movement against abortion. Previously, the issue divided the parties internally. In 1972, 59% of Democratic delegates voted down an abortion rights plank at their convention. George H.W. Bush’s father, Republican Sen. Prescott Bush, was the treasurer of Planned Parenthood. In 1967, California Gov. Ronald Reagan liberalized abortion laws. By 1976, he was apologizing for his mistake.
In the decades since, positions have hardened and the parties have sorted almost completely on the issue.
That alone doesn’t necessarily mean that reversing Roe won’t be the political boon to Democrats, which some might think it will be. But there’s ample reason for skepticism.
As Sarah Isgur wrote in Politico, Democrats in recent years have failed to make abortion rights a tool for turnout. Last year, a Texas law that severely restricted abortion by allowing private individuals to sue providers didn’t galvanize Democrats the way politicians such as Terry McAuliffe hoped in his bid in the race for Virginia governor (in part because Glenn Youngkin, the Republican winner, adroitly said he wouldn’t have signed the Texas bill).
While the actual overturning of Roe alone may not yield the backlash Democrats hope for, it’s far more plausible that Republicans, liberated from Roe, will do something to spark one against their party.
Various red states are poised to impose bans or near bans on abortion just as blue states are likely to codify unfettered access to abortion. If you live in a state such as California, New York or Oregon, the draft ruling would not restrict abortion access.
Political predictions are so hard because neither party’s official position reflects most voters. Only 23% of Americans believe abortion should be legal under any circumstances while only 21% think it should be illegal under all circumstances. Everyone else is somewhere in the middle, largely favoring first trimester abortions and more restrictions after that. Bill Clinton’s formulation of “safe, legal and rare” captures where most Americans are.
As a practical matter, the maximalists on both sides represent the respective bases of the parties. The question now is, how long will that last? If the court sends abortion back to the political arena, absolutism will no longer be an easy safe harbor for politicians, particularly ones with national ambitions. A lot of Democrats who favor abortion rights and Republicans who oppose abortion are almost certainly more moderate than the hard party line they’ve adopted out of expedience.
It will take a long time to unwind the polarization caused by Roe and the result will not please the most committed on either side. The next few years will probably be chaotic, as the parties figure out how to keep their bases happy in a post-Roe world where politicians will be held to account for their positions on abortion. The only way out is through.