Local spending outlook down as shopping season begins
Researchers expect 0.8% decline, but area retailers are optimistic.
Area stores are expected to see a slight decline in consumer holiday spending compared to last year, researchers from the University of Cincinnati Economics Center said, though national and statewide estimates anticipate increases overall.
A decline of 0.8% in spending is being anticipated for the region.
The day after Thanksgiving, often referred to as Black Friday, is usually one of the biggest shopping days of the year and begins an important time of the year for retailers.
Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, supporting one in four U.S. jobs — 52 million working Americans, according to the NRF.
“Jobs in the Dayton region have grown by approximately 3% compared to a statewide job growth of about 5%,” said Brad Evans, UC Economics Center director of research.
The forecast also shows an expected decline of 4.4% for the Cleveland region in 2023 over 2022 due to limited wage growth, he said.
“Both those regions have been hit just a little bit harder in certain areas in terms of jobs and wages during the pandemic and have been slower to come out of that as they continue to recover,” Evans said.
Statewide, researchers are anticipating a 0.7% increase in holiday spending over last year. Approximately $32.2 billion is expected to be spent statewide in 2023 during the October to December holiday season, according to the UC forecast. This compares to nearly $32 billion in holiday relevant retail revenues during the 2022 holiday season.
Regionally, Youngstown is expected to experience the largest increase in relevant retail sales (6.8%) from the previous year, followed by Columbus (5.2%) and Mansfield (3.7%). Ohio’s largest metro areas — Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati —again are expected to account for more than half (55%)