Stefanowski Taps Into Economic Discontent

The voters who make up the political base of Bob Stefanowski — who has turned a double-digit deficit in the governor’s race into a dead heat against Ned Lamont with promises of sweeping tax cuts — have a love-hate relationship with Donald Trump.

There are the self-identified “deplorables” who say they don’t know quite what to make of Stefanowski, an offagain, on-again Republican, who was a registered Democrat during the 2016 presidential election but didn’t vote.

But with two out of every three voters disapproving of the president in deepblue Connecticut, a critical component of a potential winning coalition for Stefanowski are the so-called “Never Trumpers” and residents who are deeply worried about the state’s future.

Stefanowski has fashioned himself as Connecticut’s Charlie Baker-in-themaking — the business-friendly, moderate Republican governor of neighboring Massachusetts who has the highest approval rating in the nation.

This appeals to deciders like real estate mogul William

Rave is Jr ., who couldn’t bring himself to vote for Trump or Hillary Clinton two Novembers ago.

The Republican convert, who registered as a Democrat for 50 years, said Stefanowski has tapped into deep dissatisfaction over high taxes, declining home values and the flight of companies, young talent and retirees from Connecticut.

“It was the message that counts not as much as the person,” Raveis said. “Bob

certainly has all the education and all of the skill sets to take care of the state.”

The key to the election for Stefanowski will be winning center-right voters in a state where those who are not affiliated with a political party are the big prize. There are 860,000 of them, more than Democrats and nearly twice as many as Republicans.

Stefanowski is courting them when he rails against endless deficits, plum union benefits, a maze of red tape, economic stagnation and the Department of Motor Vehicles, which he would seek to privatize.

Convince them that Lamont will raise their taxes, put up highway tolls and kowtow to unions has been an integral part of Stefanowski’s strategy.

The first petitioning candidate in Connecticut history to win a major party’s nomination, Stefanowski is now seeking to become the first Republican to win statewide office since 2006.

After trailing Lamont by 13 points in late August, Stefanowski cut the deficit to 4 points in the final week of the campaign, within the margin of error of the Quinnipiac Poll. A Hearst Connecticut Media Group/Sacred Heart University Poll released Thursday shows the two candidates in a statistical tie, with Stefanowski ahead by 2 percent.

Now, the Republican Governors Association is saturating the television airwaves in the New York City media market, which includes Fairfield County, with $3 million in campaign ads to try to tip the race for Stefanowski.

“The trends are definitely working in our direction,” Stefanowski said late last week. “I think people are tired. They want the economy to turn around.”

Obstacles abound for Stefanowski, from a 5-to-3 voter registration advantage for Democrats over Republicans to the predicted blue wave in the first midterm election of Trump’s presidency.

But Stefanowski has shown an uncanny knack for a first-time candidate to calmly stay on message, exasperating his political opponents and the media with a drumbeat of plainspoken talking points about tax reform and spending cuts that critics say are empty promises and devoid of substance.

From the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to gun control in the aftermath of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting, Democrats have been unable to pin Stefanowski down on issues that would seemingly give Republicans fits.

The former UBS Investment Bank and General Electric executive is vowing to phase out the state income tax over eight years and sunset the corporate income and business entity taxes after two years. He would immediately eliminate the estate and gift taxes.

“He’s definitely sticking to his one note,” said Jerold Duquette, an associate professor of political science at Central Connecticut State University in New Britain. “It could be just an object lesson in the ‘keep it simple, stupid’ method of modern politics.”

Stefanowski has been vague about which programs and services he would cut to make up for the $10 billion a year in lost revenue from phasing out the state income tax. That has opened him up to unrelenting criticism from rivals, who say his plan would eviscerate municipal aid, education funding and the state’s social safety net while delivering a tax cut to one-percenters.

Those planning to vote for Stefanowski say that the unlikely GOP standard bearer has started a dialogue about tax reform — and that’s enough to sway them.

“Really, truthfully, I don’t know what Bob’s going to walk into on day one. This isn’t GE. This is the gold dome,” said Mary Ann Turner, Enfield’s Republican town committee chairman. “You need a guy who doesn’t know where the bathroom is. He doesn’t know what’s behind every door.”

Stefanowski has been an acquired taste for Turner, a vociferous backer of Trump who voted for former Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst in the five-way GOP primary in August.

The eventual GOP nominee skipped four of five debates organized by the state Republican Party before its convention in May, where Stefanowski sat out a delegate vote on the endorsement.

Turner said it “bugs” her that Stefanowski, who spent part of his corporate career living abroad in London, did not vote for 16 years and was registered as a Democrat during the 2016 presidential election.

“I love Donald Trump,” Turner said. But she can see why — like in 2016 — some “deplorables” could be reluctant to declare their allegiances to Trump, even anonymously to pollsters.

“I just think Trump’s another buzz line people throw at us like it’s a swear word,” Turner said. “It’s a swear word, and some people cringe at it and other people like us. It’s odd to me why Trump has become such a volcano.”

Stefanowski has tread carefully on Trump, to whom he gave an “A” grade during a Republican primary debate. The president is keeping his distance from Connecticut the final weekend of the campaign — and that’s no accident.

“I think Trump is an enormous problem for Bob Stefanowski, much more than my old boss is for Lamont,” said Roy Occhiogrosso, a former top adviser to Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, the unpopular Democrat who is not seeking re-election.

In a mailer sent out by his campaign during the final week of the campaign, Lamont warned “Don’t Let Trump Win Again.” It included a mock tweet from Trump — misspellings, capital letters and exclamation points — congratulating Stefanowski on his victory.

“He reminds you every single day what a pig he is,” Occhiogrosso said of Trump. “Is Donald Trump somehow going to become sane and rational the next seven days? I don’t think so.”

Yet the top three issues identified by voters in an Oct. 10 Quinnipiac Poll suggest that they are preoccupied with the fiscal direction of Connecticut: the economy, taxes and government spending.

Raveis is conflicted about Trump, who endorsed Stefanowski in a tweet the morning after Stefanowski’s Republican primary victory.

“I like Trump’s business and regulatory policy [but] do not like his crude speaking or unconventional bragging,” Raveis said, adding that Trump’s tax reform has been a boon for the real estate sector.

Steve Obsitnik, a Westport tech entrepreneur who finished fifth in the GOP primary to Stefanowski, was in the Never Trump bucket. He wrote in the name of John McCain for president on his ballot in 2016.

“I think this is going to come down do people care more about their pocket books, the value of their homes and the length of their commute or what’s going on in Washington,” Obsitnik said.

Since the bruising primary, a number of Stefanowski’s former rivals have campaigned for him, including Obsitnik, who helped host a fundraiser.

“Bob came with a very direct, specific and single-threaded message, and the primary voters were attracted to that,” Obsitnik said.

Dave Walker, the former U.S. comptroller general under presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, threw his support to Stefanowski after his own bid for governor stalled at the GOP convention.

The pair recently campaigned in Bridgeport, where they met with executives of People’s Bank, which is based in the state’s most populous city.

Walker said Stefanowski’s economic plan has a cross-over appeal, just like Trump’s economic agenda — in spite of the president’s vitriol.

“Most Republicans don’t like his personality and style,” Walker said of Trump.

But at the end of the day, Walker said, the race will come down to Connecticut. “President Trump is not on the ballot,” Walker said. “Frankly, Governor Malloy isn’t on the ballot either.”

In contrast to Trump, Stefanowski doesn’t manage his own Twitter account and doesn’t seem to share the president’s obsession for mixing it up with the media.

In fact, for much of the campaign, he’s kept the the media at arm’s length, sharing snippets of schedule until his current nine-day, 54-stop van tour of the state.

Like Trump, Stefanowski is grappling with a gender gap in the polls and trails Lamont by 21 points among women. He leads among men by 13 points.

Republicans say Democrats are trying to divert attention from the state’s fiscal mess with their onslaught of Trump mentions.

“I don’t think it has anything to do with Trump, to be honest,” said John McKinney, the former state Senate Republican leader.