6 census numbers that are actually pretty good for Connecticut

A year ago, we warned of “5 Connecticut Census Numbers That Should Scare Your Socks Off.” You can put your socks back on.

Doom seemed on the horizon back then. Census data that measure state-to-state migration showed more people were leaving Connecticut than were moving in from other states to replace them, causing a big net loss in interstate migration that was growing by the year. It’s an important measure of Connecticut’s desirability as a place to live, distinct from population changes that come from births and deaths, or from people moving to Connecticut from overseas.

But the out-migration trends didn’t worsen as feared. They reversed, in small but notable ways. Among key groups, Connecticut’s population is increasing, or at least the outflow has slowed.

In 2016, U.S. Census data showed that Connecticut was losing more people to other states than it was gaining in every age bracket and at one of the highest rates in the nation.

The most recent data for 2017 show that while Connecticut’s net state-to-state migration is still in the red, it’s improving — and when taken with other census data that show overall population gains, it all suggests that Connecticut’s demographic situation is stabilizing.

For many people, Connecticut is looking like the place to be.

The numbers:

1,344

In 2017, 14,645 Connecticut residents in the 30-39 age group moved out, to another state. But 15,989 moved in from other states, resulting in a net gain of 1,344, according to census estimates.

In 2016, there was a net loss of 4,596 from the same age group. Those are the people who raise children and whose careers are generally on the way up.

-1,382

What about the panicked exodus of retirees fleeing the state? It’s slowing.

The most recent numbers show that Connecticut lost a net of 1,382 people 65 and older to other states. But that loss has grown much less severe. In 2016, Connecticut lost a net of 5,540 people 65 and older to other states.

A few more interesting details about the migration of older people:

In 2017, more older Americans moved to Connecticut — 5,623 — than in any other year since at least 2008.

And the number of older Connecticut residents moving out, 7,005, was about 3,600 fewer than last year. That’s the first decrease in five years and the sharpest in at least a decade.

That means older Connecticut residents were more likely to stay put last year.

1,065

In terms of income groups, the $25,000 to $34,999 bracket saw the biggest increase last year — 6,775 people earning within that range moved out of Connecticut, but 7,840 moved in from other states, according to the estimates, a net gain of 1,065 people.

That’s a key group, said Thomas J. Cooke, a demographer and professor at the University of Connecticut’s geography department.

“People who move in with low incomes are young,” he said. “Their income trajectory is upward.”

People want to live in a place that “gives them value added for where they are in their life course,” he said.

Connecticut is still a great place to raise children, and it is attractive to people in those child-raising years who value good schools.

In 2016, far more people — 3,455 — in that income group moved out of Connecticut than moved in. Another indication that things are looking up.

There’s good news at the higher end, as well. The net increase in state-to-state migration last year for people earning more than $75,000 was 208. In 2016, there was a net loss of 3,976 people in that same earning bracket. -3,222 The net loss of people with graduate or professional degrees to other states. Although this number is still a serious concern, the outflow is less than last year, when the state saw a net loss of 4,354 people in the same education group.

On the positive side, Connecticut saw a gain of 2,455 people with some college or an associate degree, up from a net loss of 6,616 people in that demographic last year.

-15,646

From 2016 to 2017, Connecticut experienced an estimated net loss of 15,646 people to other states. Yes, that’s a big loss, but it’s much smaller than the one before. The loss from 2015-2016 was 37,328 people. That year, Connecticut earned the dubious distinction of being among the top states in percentage loss of its people.

Mr. Cooke, the UConn demographer, points to data that show Connecticut’s out-migration was much more of a problem in the early 1990s.

One factor that might be keeping out-migration lower in Connecticut is its high rate of dual-earner households. Mr. Cooke said that if one spouse loses their job but the other is still employed, it’s more difficult to uproot the whole family than to hold on and try to find another job. It’s a compelling argument.

24,580

That’s how many people who moved to Connecticut from abroad in 2017, which was more than enough to offset the state-to-state loss. Immigration continues to be key to Connecticut’s growth. Without it, the state’s population would still be dropping.

Overall, these numbers are small, and as these are estimates, it would be premature to pop any corks. But they are improvements from last year. If nothing else, they show that the bottom has not fallen out.

It’s time to ease up on the “everyone is fleeing” rhetoric.