Virus came quickly, climate change slowly — both deadly
Many experts predicted this pandemic — not the day of its arrival, but its inevitability and our unpreparedness. The same is also true for climate change, yet there is a major departure between the two.
COVID-19 came rapidly, and its spread has been undeniable. That is not the case for climate change, where the changes are slower and less obvious. We are the fabled frog in the pot of water that is slowly warmed to boiling. We need to jump out before it is too late.
Adhering to social distancing rules for prolonged periods of time is difficult. We can’t touch, taste, feel or see the benefits. If all of our actions work, the outcome is that we don’t get sick. But not being sick was the state we were in before we took those actions. Adhering to the measures required to mitigate climate change will be even harder.
The finish line to the COVID-19 pandemic is the development and distribution of an effective vaccine. After crossing that line, the world and society will be back to normal with a few small but significant changes. That will not be the case for climate change. Permanent changes will have to occur on a global scale to avoid a climate catastrophe.
First, we must trust in science.
Despite the errors and noticeable absence of the Centers for Disease Control in directing the COVID-19 response, 79% of the American public express a favorable view of the CDC. Scientists are interviewed on television, and Dr. Anthony Fauci has become a household name. This focus on science and increased trust in science is what the nation requires to stay competitive in science and deal with climate change. However, the increased focus on science has serious risks, especially to the trust in science among those who do not understand then on-linear consensusestablishing nature of scientific research.
Scientists use experiments to test their theories and hypotheses. No map shows the way to prove or disprove a theory, as the scientific process is not linear. Neil Gershenfeld, director of MIT’s Center for Bits and Atoms, writes that “to find something that’s not already on the map, you need to leave the road and wander in the woods besides it.” He feels that nonscientists do not recognize that “science appears to be goal-directed only after the fact. While it’s unfolding, it is more like a chaotic dance of improvisation, than a victory march.” It is important to realize that uncertainty is an inherent and unremovable component of scientific experimentation. It is not a weakness; it is a strength. Today’s high-profile expert assertions can be disproven by tomorrow’s events.
Virologist Christian Drosten is the German version of Anthony Fauci. He is the media and government expert on the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Germany. When asked what keeps him awake at night, Drosten says it is something he calls the “prevention paradox.” If social distancing works and the curve is flattened, it will leave some people wondering if we overreacted by closing schools and businesses.
Global cooperation is needed to prevent COVID-19 flare-ups and future pandemics. In an opinion piece in The Guardian, Ian Goldin writes, “If there is one lesson COVID-19 has taught us, it is how interconnected our lives are. What I have called ‘the butterfly defect’ of globalisation means that systemic risks anywhere are a risk to us all. We are only as strong as our weakest links. In the case of COVID-19, if one country is a pandemic hotspot, we’re all at risk of reinfection. Now more than ever we must show solidarity with those beyond our borders. Our health depends on the health of others. If we are to look forward to a better future, people elsewhere must too.”
One small advantage climate change mitigation has over the coronavirus is that the climate change world is smaller. It would only take the combined action of the top 10-12 carbon producing nations to reduce climate change.
Time is of the essence. South Korea and Germany responded quickly and efficiently to warnings of the impending pandemic. Their numbers are significantly better than those of the United States and Italy — less deaths per million, less hospitalizations per million, and they reopened sooner. We have heard the climate change warnings. The sooner we take measures to reduce our fossil fuel dependence, the easier it will be. The longer we wait, the more draconian the measures required will be to prevent the impending climate catastrophe.