Breaking down potential playoff matchups, scenarios
NEW YORK — The Knicks starting lineup has exactly 14 games of playoff experience, all coming from Nerlens Noel and Reggie Bullock.
Julius Randle, the Knicks “engine,” as Tom Thibodeau commonly labels his All-Star, has never been in the postseason despite seven years in the NBA. Same with Elfrid Payton. Sophomore RJ Barrett is the fifth starter.
So it’s difficult to determine how the Knicks will respond to their first postseason in eight years. Randle wasn’t ready to predict how he’ll handle the pressure.
“I guess we’ll see,” he said. “I’m excited for it.”
The Knicks have locked up a spot in at least the play-in tournament and were sprinting on the inside track toward a playoff position. Heading into Friday night’s game against the Suns, they sat fourth in the East with a one-game lead over the Hawks, and a two-game lead over both the Celtics and Heat. It’s hardly a lock, but the Knicks only have to avoid falling to seventh to skip the play-in.
They have a tough schedule remaining — at Clippers, at Lakers, vs Spurs, vs. Hornets, vs. Celtics — but are lucky the Heat and Celtics play each other twice next week.
Somebody must lose. And that helps the Knicks.
With the assumption they’ll get into the playoffs, it’s worth examining four different first-round scenarios.
Fall to sixth: Obviously, this isn’t ideal. There’s a clear separation between the top-3 in the East and everybody else. It’s hard to imagine the Knicks emerging victorious in a seven-game series against any of these teams. The talent gap is too wide.
The Knicks went 0-6 this season against the Sixers and Nets, although four of the games were close. They beat the Bucks twice in three games but their second victory was against Milwaukee’s B squad (four of the starters were out, including Giannis Antetokounmpo).
Face the Celtics: It’s a tough matchup for the Knicks against an underachieving squad, but the Celtics are semi vulnerable. Kemba Walker has struggled all season and Jayson Tatum, still 23 years old, will have to carry the offense. He’s more than capable but Walker’s regression is a real problem.
The Knicks are 1-1 against the Celtics (their victory arrived with Tatum inactive), and play the rubber match in the regular-season finale.
Get Atlanta: Probably the best-case matchup. Like the Knicks, the Hawks are inexperienced and unproven. Trae Young is a special offensive talent but is inconsistent and exploitable on the other end. They’re playing better defense under interim coach Nate McMillan, but still rank 21st in defensive efficiency (the Knicks are fifth). They don’t pass the smell test of a successful playoff team.
Or Miami ... : It’s best for the Knicks if they avoid the defending Eastern Conference champs. Not only did the Heat sweep them in the regular season — often while utilizing one of the league’s best zone defenses — they carry the coaching and personnel pedigree of a successful playoff squad. Jimmy Butler always takes it up a notch in pressurized situations, and Bam Adebayo is a budding superstar. Not a good matchup for Thibodeau.