Finns, Swedes hint at security shift
Nordic countries warm up to idea of NATO membership
HELSINKI — Through the Cold War and the decades since, nothing could persuade Finns and Swedes that they would be better off joining NATO — until now.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed Europe’s security outlook, including for Nordic neutrals Finland and Sweden, where support for joining NATO has surged to record levels.
A poll commissioned by Finnish broadcaster YLE last week showed that, for the first time, more than 50% of Finns support joining the Western military alliance. In neighboring Sweden, a similar poll showed those in favor of NATO membership outnumber those against.
“The unthinkable might start to become thinkable,” tweeted former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, a proponent of NATO membership.
Neither country is going to join the alliance overnight. Support for NATO membership rises and falls, and there’s no clear majority for joining in their parliaments.
But the signs of change since Russia began its invasion are unmistakable.
The attack on Ukraine prompted Finland and Sweden to break with their policy of not providing arms to countries at war by sending assault rifles and antitank weapons to Kyiv. For Sweden, it’s the first time it’s offering military aid since 1939, when it assisted Finland against the Soviet Union.
Apparently sensing a shift among its Nordic neighbors, the Russian Foreign Ministry last week voiced concern about what it described as efforts by the United States and some of its allies to
“drag” Finland and Sweden into NATO and warned that Moscow would be forced to take retaliatory measures if they joined the alliance.
The governments of Sweden and Finland retorted that they won’t let Moscow dictate their security policy.
“I want to be extremely clear: It is Sweden that itself and independently decides on our security policy line,” Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said.
Finland has a conflictridden history with Russia, with which it shares a 830-mile border. Finns have taken part in dozens of wars against their eastern neighbor, for centuries as part of the Swedish Kingdom, and as an independent nation, including two fought with the Soviet Union from 193940 and 1941-44.
In the postwar period, however, Finland pursued pragmatic political and economic ties with Moscow, remaining militarily nonaligned and a neutral buffer between East and West.
Sweden has avoided military alliances for more than 200 years, choosing a path of peace after centuries of warfare with its neighbors.
Both countries put an end to traditional neutrality by joining the European Union in 1995 and deepening cooperation with NATO. However, a majority of people in both countries remained against full membership in the alliance — until now.
The YLE poll showed 53% were in favor of Finland joining NATO, with only 28% against. The poll had an error margin of 2.5 percentage
points and included 1,382 respondents interviewed Feb. 23 to 25. Russia’s invasion began Feb. 24.
“It’s a very significant shift,” said senior researcher Matti Pesu from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “We’ve had a situation in the past 25-30 years where Finns’ opinions on NATO have been very stable. It seems to now to have changed completely.”
While noting that it’s not possible to draw conclusions from a poll, Pesu said no similar shift in public opinion occurred after Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia and the 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, “so this is an exception.”
In Sweden, a late February poll commissioned by public broadcaster SVT found 41% of Swedes supported
NATO membership and 35% opposed it, marking the first time that those in favor exceeded those against.
The Nordic duo, important partners for NATO in the Baltic Sea area where Russia has increased its military maneuvers in the past decade, has stressed that it is up to them alone to decide whether to join the military alliance.
In his New Year’s speech, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto pointedly said that “Finland’s room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg noted recently that for Helsinki and Stockholm “this is a question of self-determination
and the sovereign right to choose your own path and then potentially in the future, also to apply for NATO.”
There are no set criteria for joining NATO, but aspiring candidates must meet certain political and other considerations. Many observers believe Finland and Sweden would qualify for fast-track entry into NATO.
Though not members, Finland and Sweden cooperate with NATO, allowing, among other things, the alliance’s troops to exercise on their soil. Helsinki and Stockholm have also intensified their bilateral defense cooperation in the past years, and both have secured close military cooperation with the U.S., Britain and neighboring NATO member Norway.