There are two prices to consider: Gas and climate
Throughout my 20s, before Uber and Lyft, my favorite mode of transportation was hitching. It was economical and, even through several cross-country trips, I never had a problem. I resisted purchasing a car until 1978 when I got a prized job at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts and didn’t want my new colleagues to see me with a hitchhiking sign. I’m not a mechanic and not that interested in how pistons convert fossil fuel into energy to propel a car forward. So I decided to purchase a new vehicle. I had student loans to pay and a career to concentrate on, so I needed an economical car that required no attention. Gas then averaged 68 cents per gallon ($2.90 in 2022). There was no doubt in my mind that gas would soon be $2 a gallon ($8.62 in 2022).
My choice was a bright yellow Honda Civic. At 50 mpg, it was small but peppy and good on New England winter roads. Today there is no non-hybrid car on the market that gets 50 mpg. My current car, a Subaru Crosstrek, gets 28-29 mpg. I’m sure it is better in all road conditions and no doubt “safer” than my old Honda, but at what price?
There are two prices to consider: gas and climate.
Gas price: Today, gas is more than $4 a gallon (93 cents in 1978 dollars), and with the war in Ukraine, it might soon be $5 a gallon ($1.16 in 1978 dollars). Gas didn’t reach $2 a gallon until 2004-2005. Since 2004-2005 there have been significant price variations, reaching $3.62 in 2012 ($4.43 in 2022) and dropping to $2.14 and $2.17 in 2016 and 2020. We remember the lower prices, especially when the rate of increase between 2020 and today has been so breathtakingly dramatic. Historically, as painful as it is, when adjusted for inflation, gas prices in the United States are not that high. Consider the price in 2012.
Climate Price: The majority of Americans
are concerned about climate change. With good reason. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report issued dire warnings about the consequences of additional greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Scientists have warned about the climate consequences of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the first report was issued in 1990. Then the average price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump was $1.30 (65 cents in 1978 and $2.80 in 2022). Yet there is no pause in the relentless increase of CO2 into the atmosphere. Between 1978 and 2022, atmospheric CO2 increased from 335.26 ppm to 418.38 ppm, 25%; 83 ppm in just 44 years. And the growth was more rapid in the past five years.
From the Antarctic ice core record, where tiny bubbles of atmospheric gas are locked into the ice, we know that for the past 800,000 years, atmospheric CO2 generally varied between 180 and 280 ppm. At the height of the last ice age, 20,000 years ago, CO2 levels hovered around 180-185 ppm. As the ice melted and Earth warmed over the next 20,000 years, CO2 levels increased to 280 ppm. Earth’s ecological systems had time to respond to the increase. Pollen records show a gradual shift in plants, including trees, as warmer species replaced colder species. This shows the importance of the rate of change, a concept that is often overlooked when discussing our current climate crisis. In just 64 years, atmospheric CO2 levels have increased over 100 ppm, a natural increase that took about 20,000 years. Equally discouraging is the rate of growth.
Despite our knowledge that there are devastating consequences from the rapid increase of CO2, we have not changed the trajectory.
When I think about the rate of change, I think about gaining weight. Imagine you are 20 years old, 5 feet 6, and weigh 150 pounds, with a body mass index (BMI) of 24 (healthy).
As the years progress, you might gain weight. If you gain two pounds per year for 50 years, at 70, you’ll weigh 250 pounds and have a BMI of 40 (obese). An alternative is that you gain two pounds a week for a year. By the end of the year, you’ll weigh 254 pounds. These are two different rates of change with drastically different consequences. Both are possible, neither is desirable.
For atmospheric CO2, we are on the two pounds per week trajectory. Many factors contribute to this rapid increase: larger houses, food choices, the surge in electrical devices and the voracious gasoline appetite for our personal transportation. We’ve known about the impending climate crises for decades. It is painful to watch the numbers flip by as my car tank fills. I lament that we don’t have the option to drive a 50 mpg gas-propelled car. I’m furious that we are losing the opportunity to protect the lives of our children and grandchildren. Gas prices need to be high to help us consider their future, which we are squandering.