Scoring, quarterback play way down this season, and the NFL doesn’t know why

At the NFL’s owners meetings last week in New York City, executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent touted the league’s success and popularity.

“Hey, 91 out of the 100 mostwatched TV shows were football games last year,” he said. “Why? Because of the quality and play of the QB position, from top to bottom.”

That may have been the case in 2021 and in recent seasons. But, in 2022, quarterback play, and offensive play in general, has been decidedly worse through the first six weeks. As Tom Brady so aptly described it a few weeks ago, “I think there’s a lot of bad football, from what I watch.”

Brady may be overstating it a tad. But the NFL equates entertainment with scoring and the passing game, and those numbers are noticeably down.

Through Week 6, points per game (43.3), passing yards per game (481.9), and passing yards per attempt (7.02) are at their lowest since 2010. Scoring is down 4.5 points per game from this time last year, and 7.5 from 2020. There have been 77 fewer touchdowns from scrimmage this season compared with last.

And quarterbacks are struggling. The leaguewide passer rating is 88.7, down from 95.2 at this point in 2021 and 94.1 in 2020. The only four quarterbacks with a passer rating better than 100 are Tua Tagovailoa (leading at 109.9), Josh Allen, Geno Smith, and Patrick Mahomes.

Last year through Week 6, there were 12 passers better than 100, and in 2020 there were 11. Russell Wilson had the highest rating in both seasons (125.3 and 129.8).

It’s tempting to equate the struggles to the reduction in preseason games and the number of full-contact practices in training camp, but similar rules were also in place the last two seasons. The 2020 season had no preseason games because of the pandemic and it was the best offensive season in NFL history.

Falcons president Rich McKay, chairman of the competition committee, said the NFL doesn’t have an explanation for the sudden dip.

“We’ve looked at it in a lot of different ways. I’m not sure that we’ve found a good answer,” McKay said.

Vincent said red-zone efficiency is partly to blame — teams are converting just 56.3 percent into touchdowns, compared with 61.8 percent at this point last year and 62.6 percent in 2020. The number of red-zone trips has also decreased — 593 this year, down from 621 and 635 — while punt and field goal attempts are up.

But no quarterback’s struggles have been more unexpected or pronounced than those of Wilson, whose stats are the worst of his career. Wilson’s quarterback rating dropped from over 125 the past two seasons to 83.4 this year. His completion percentage dropped from 72 percent the last two years to 58.6 this year. In 2020, Wilson started the year with 19 touchdowns and three picks. This year, he has five touchdowns and three picks. The Broncos are last in scoring (15.2 points per game) and in the red zone (three touchdowns in 15 trips).

There may not be a single explanation for the leaguewide struggles. Stafford had offseason elbow surgery and was a spectator for most of training camp. Brady has had a revolving door of offensive linemen and receivers. The Cardinals’ offense is a mess and Murray perhaps needs to study more film. Cousins, Wentz, and Mayfield are learning new offenses.

Joe Burrow (passer rating down by 12 points) missed most of camp following an appendectomy. Aaron Rodgers is learning new receivers. Wilson is struggling with new teammates and a new system under first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett.