Why Big East? At what cost?
Here’s what we know and what we don’t know about UConn’s potential move from the AAC
News of UConn moving to the Big East from the American Athletic Conference was met with plenty of surprise from Huskies fans this weekend.
There has long been talk and speculation, mostly from fans, of UConn leaving the AAC, but that’s all it seemed to be at the end of the day — speculation.
The Courant has confirmed through sources that UConn is indeed headed to the Big East for all sports the conference sponsors. The conference doesn’t sponsor hockey, so UConn will remain in the competitive Hockey East, and it does not sponsor football. That raises plenty of questions as to what will happen to UConn’s football program.
There’s a lot to unpack with this move. Here’s what we know and some of what remains unanswered.
Why is this happening?
Quite simply, the AAC and UConn were just never a good fit. The Huskies got caught when the biggest Division I athletic conferences realigned earlier this dec
ade. UConn hoped to find a home in the ACC or the Big Ten and gladly would have taken a spot in the Big 12 if the first two didn’t work out.
UConn lacked long, bigtime football history but trends showed good football would lead to a good payday with TV contracts. So officials banded together with others who were left on the outside — Houston, Central Florida, Memphis, etc. — and constructed the AAC.
Geographically, it only made sense for TV dollars. Some of the biggest markets were brought into the fold.
And while the $1 billion, 12-year deal the AAC just inked with ESPN is nothing to laugh at, the annual payment of about $7 million for UConn just isn’t close enough to what the Power Five conference teams receive.
UConn officials also felt the AAC-ESPN deal limited the school’s exposure, moving many games to a streaming service platform and off linear TV.
In addition, the UConn athletic department saw its annual deficit grow to $41 million in 2018 with no obvious way to close that hole.
The deficit — made up for through students and university subsidy — would be easier to handle if it were about half.
But the idea that UConn could be stuck with a deficit that large for the foreseeable future meant some action needed to be taken.
UConn officials see an opportunity to build around and protect the university’s basketball programs. Their hope is that restoring rivalries with Villanova, Georgetown and others, in addition to regular games in Madison Square Garden, will restore the old Big East feel and reinvigorate the fan base.
Why is this happening now?
This was not a decision made overnight. It seems the AAC TV deal was the last straw for UConn and Athletic Director David Benedict. He was critical, as was President Susan Herbst.
Herbst is also on her way out, with Thomas Katsouleas taking the reins this summer. The presidential transition and the conference transition also align.
It doesn’t seem the Big East was actively looking for an addition. But UConn’s basketball pedigree is hard to ignore. The conference adds a men’s program that has plenty of momentum as coach Dan Hurley heads into his second year, and the women’s program carries 11 national titles.
So while we don’t know exactly why this is happening in this moment, it’s clear the financials being the way they are, the TV deal being approved and the opportunity for a move made this fall into place now.
What happens with football?
Sources told The Courant there are no plans to eliminate football or drop to FCS.
That leaves the Huskies with three options: go independent, look for a new conference or try to stay in the AAC.
For UConn, it would be easiest to stay in the AAC. It could give back some of the annual money it makes from the TV contract without basketball programs and keep a quality schedule with guaranteed games. It’s also the most unlikely as the AAC probably doesn’t want anything to do with UConn now that it’s pulling out. For the AAC, the attraction of UConn to the conference is its basketball programs.
Looking for a new conference makes some sense. It would give UConn guaranteed TV revenue. But it puts the Huskies in the same situation as it faces in the AAC: guaranteed games against opponents UConn fans have no investment in. Early speculation is the Mid-Atlantic Conference would make some sense, but how excited will fans be to watch Akron, Toledo and Central Michigan? Football attendance has plummeted the last 10 years and likely wouldn’t see a bump with those teams.
Going independent could set UConn up with opponents fans might get excited about. But it comes without guaranteed money going in and could come with struggles to set up opponents in the first few years because so many programs set schedules years in advance. UConn could always try to set up a TV deal, but again, nothing is guaranteed.
What is the cost of this?
There are hard costs we know, and plenty we don’t.
The exit fee, if UConn gives 27 months notice, is $10 million. It’s not giving 27 months, and therefore the exit fee could be higher. But everything is negotiable.
In 2013, Louisville left without giving that notice and paid $11 million, which was broken up into multiple payments. Rutgers paid $11.5 million. It’s unclear years later how much it would take to get UConn out.
There will also be an entry fee to the Big East, likely in the millions.
UConn knows there will be savings in terms of travel because the conference is less spread out geographically. That number is unclear, but it will offset some of the annual revenue lost in the short term from the TV deal.
In terms of the bigger picture, it isn’t known how much savings there will be or if the annual costs will doom the department. Time will tell for much of this.
Where will those funds come from?
This is another unknown. We do know UConn has been able to find money when it needs it.
Hiring Hurley, building new stadiums on campus, renovating old ones, the school has found money. Benedict has to be aware of the exit fees and entry fees, so whether money comes from donors, some savings found elsewhere, the school, the state or a combination, it will be found.
What’s next for UConn, others?
Things will happen quickly. At least, at first.
Sources indicate the Big East schools will vote on Monday. Connecticut Attorney General William Tong will review the contract. The UConn Board of Trustees have a regularly-scheduled meeting for Wednesday that could include a vote on the Big East entry. If all goes according to plan, school officials could be at the Big East offices in New York on Thursday for an announcement.
UConn is expected to remain in the AAC for all sports through the 2019-20 school year, so shifting to the Big East won’t happen anytime soon.
As for football, that remains up in the air. Expect Benedict and school leaders to weigh their options carefully. The AAC will do its research as to whether it should invite another school or keep UConn, and other conferences will consider whether adding UConn’s football program makes sense.