Heating up
Climate change study by Union of Concerned Scientists suggests extreme heat by 2050 without action
Hartford could see as many as 44 days a year of summer temperatures above 90 degrees by 2050 if the U.S. and other nations fail to take decisive action to slow climate change, according to a new study by the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Hartford could have as many as 44 days a year of summer temperatures above 90 degrees by 2050 if the U.S. and other nations fail to take decisive action to slow climate change, according to a new study by the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Currently, Hartford averages just 11 days during the year when temperatures hit the 90-degree Fahrenheit mark.
The report released today warns that taking some slow measures to counter global warming would still result in dramatic increases in killer heat waves. In Hartford, gradual efforts to address climate change would result in Connecticut’s Capitol City seeing 34 days a year with heat topping 90 degrees.
The new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists echoes similar studies of the increasing impacts of climate change. This latest report states that more heat waves in the future would almost certainly cause more summer deaths among the elderly, children and people with various medical conditions.
“Cities tend to be hotter than surrounding areas, which increases the risk of heat-related illness for urban residents during heat waves,” according to the report’s authors. Residents of low-income neighborhoods also tend to suffer disproportionally from heat waves, experts say.
Extreme heat also intensifies some types of air pollution, such as ground-level ozone, which would also cause additional health problems for vulnerable people.
“The longer our bodies remain overheated, the greater the risk of heat-related illnesses and the greater the risk of death,” the report warned.
A heat wave is normally defined as at least three consecutive days with temperatures above 90. The longest Connecticut heat waves ever recorded by the National Weather Service at Bradley International Airport occurred in 1995 and 2016 when temperatures hit 90 or higher for 10 days in a row.
Temperatures in the Hartford area are expected to remain in the 90s later this week, with Saturday reaching as warm as 95 degrees, forecasters say.
Other major cities in the Northeast would experience equally serious increases in annual heat waves if the world fails to take tough action on climate change, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists study.
The report warns that, by mid-century, the number of 90-plus days in Pittsburgh would rise to 53 a year. New York could see its heat-wave days go from 11 per year to 51 days above 90 degrees. Boston now averages 11 days a year above 90 but that could rise to 41 days annually without a major
anti-climate change effort.
Cities in the southern and southwestern U.S. would suffer even worse increases in heat waves, with many areas experiencing more than 30 days a year with temperatures at 105 or above, according to the report.
“Florida could experience as many as 105 days with a heat index over 100-degrees Fahrenheit,” if global warming isn’t addressed, the report’s authors warn.
“By late in the century, nearly two-thirds of the country would experience off-the-charts conditions in an average year,” according to the study.
People who work outdoors, live in urban areas and in low-income neighborhoods would all experience greater health risks if these climate change forecasts come true, the report’s authors stated.
President Trump’s administration has rejected many proposals for tackling climate change by restricting the burning of fossil fuels and is attempting to roll back climate change action plans enacted under former President Obama. The president has repeatedly rejected warnings that climate change is being caused by human action and that dramatic efforts are needed to slow global warming.
The Union of Concerned Scientists has long advocated swift action to combat climate change and its members have been harshly critical of Trump’s stand on climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
“The most consequential thing the world’s wealthiest nations can do is make deep cuts in our heat-trapping emissions,” the report’s authors concluded.
According to the report’s authors, they used 18 different climate models to project changes in heat waves that people in the U.S. are likely to experience in the next few decades.
The report also warns that failure to avoid extreme increases in heat waves in the U.S. will involve huge financial costs as local, state and federal government agencies attempt to protect people from the dangers of high temperatures.
Gregory B. Hladky can be contacted at ghladky@courant.com