Tropical Storm Dorian likely to take on strength as it moves west

MIAMI — Weather forecasters say the fourth tropical storm of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will strengthen as it moves through the Lesser Antilles.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Sunday that Tropical Storm Dorian could intensify to near hurricane strength over the eastern Caribbean Sea by Tuesday.

As of 2 p.m. EDT Sunday, the storm’s center was around 430 miles eastsoutheast of Barbados and was moving west at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds remained near 40 mph.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for Barbados. Tropical storm watches were issued for St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings could be issued later Sunday. The advisory says Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the storm’s progress.

The storm threat to Puerto Rico is uncertain at this point given forecast uncertainty, but this is not likely to be as formidable a storm as Hurricane Maria was when it devastated the island in 2017.

“It should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within and its small size,” the Hurricane Center wrote in a forecast discussion Sunday morning.

The Hurricane Center noted the presence of dry air near the storm that could put a lid on its intensification.

“Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within and its small size.”

—U.S. National Hurricane Center

In addition to Dorian, an area, which is being called “98L,” several hundred miles offshore of the Florida-Georgia border is also worth watching. The Hurricane Center is forecasting that there is an 80% chance that this weather system will intensify, possibly

growing to a tropical storm or even a hurricane by the middle of the workweek, while remaining well offshore.

If this occurs, it will earn the name Erin.

Aside from some additional shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday over the Outer Banks of the Carolinas, the only sign on shore of 98L’s existence will come in the form of high waves and rip currents for beaches from the Mid Atlantic to New England.