Playoffs a long shot but not yet impossible

It’s a mere technicality that the Mets are not already eliminated from playoff contention.

The team that went into the All-star break first in the National League East started Monday 5 ½

games behind the Braves. A combined nine Mets losses and/or Braves wins will eliminate them from the division title race.

The Mets are even worse off in the wildcard race: seven games behind the Cardinals for the second spot. Seven combined Mets losses/ Cards wins will put the wild-card dream to bed.

With 12 games left on the Mets’ schedule, it’s really just a matter of time.

But what if the teams they’re chasing melt down in positively Metsian fashion? October baseball is still technically possible in Queens.

Here’s how. (The Braves couldplayamakeup162nd game against the Rockies if the NL East is still up for grabs then.)

Mets schedule:

at Red Sox (2 games), at Brewers (3), Marlins (4), at Braves (3)

Braves schedule:

at Diamondbacks (4), at Padres (4), Phillies (3), Mets (3)

Phillies schedule:

Orioles (3), Pirates (4), at Braves (3), at Marlins (3)

Themetscan’thopejust sweeping the Braves and Marlins will save them. They might actually be mathematically eliminated by then.

Thefirstthingthatcould save them is sweeping the Red Sox and Brewers at the same time the Braves and Phillies lose their next (including Monday’s) seven games. That would put the Mets in first with two series to go.

The Mets could then make the playoffs without having to win their series against the Marlins if the Phillies beat the Braves in their three-game series, the Mets beat the Braves in their three-game season finale and the Marlins beat the Phillies in their season-finale series.

That would finish the Mets at .524 (85-77), the Braves at .478 (77-84) and the Phillies at .487 (79-86) on the season.

Slightly more realistically, if the Mets win three out of five games against the Red Sox and Brewers, they can afford just one morelosseitheragainstthe Marlins or the Braves to finish in first if the Braves win no more than three games and the Phillies win no more than six games.

That includes the Phillies sweeping the Braves and the Marlins winning the series against the Phillies.

In this scenario, that would finish the Mets at .512 (83-79), the Phillies at .506 (82-80) and the Braves at .496 (80-81) on the season.

The Mets have a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs at all, according to Fivethirtyeight’s MLB Playoff Predictions.

More specifically, they have a 0.4% chance at clinching a postseason spot, according to Fangraphs’ MLB Playoff Odds.