How should Sox approach crucial offseason? Here are some options
MLB free agency kicked off without any big splashes after the GM Meetings in Las Vegas this week, but there were several moves and enough rumors to get baseball fans excited about a busy hot stove season.
The Red Sox enter the offseason with as much payroll and roster flexibility as they’ve had in almost a decade. And while John Henry and Co.’s recent spending patterns wouldn’t indicate that the Sox won’t be spending more than $20-$25 million a year on any single player, external pressure to sign or replace Xander Bogaerts with a superstar, in addition to a desperate need for top-end pitching talent, could push the Sox back into the role of a big market team.
There’s a zillion different directions and combinations for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to explore, but what’s an offseason without some fun predictions?
Here are a few different combinations Bloom could take in attempt to avoid the Red Sox’ third last-place finish in the last four years:
Option 1: The smooth and simple approach.
Roster moves: Re-sign SS Bogaerts (seven years, $175 million), trade OF Alex Verdugo and prospect(s) to the Marlins for RHP Pablo Lopez, sign OF Michael
Conforto (one year, $15 million), trade prospects to the Cardinals for OF Tyler O’neill, re-sign LHP Matt Strahm (one year, $6 million).
Why this makes sense: Not since 2015 have the Red Sox had a fanbase that feels this frustrated by the product on the field and the perceived direction of the franchise, and the easiest way to fix that is to re-sign Bogaerts and Rafael Devers to long-term contracts. Bogaerts is the glue holding this ship together and if the Sox let him walk, it’s hard to envision a cohesive clubhouse and functional team dynamic to magically exist in 2023. Verdugo needs a change of scenery and the Marlins want a left-handed hitter. The Sox need to replace J.D. Martinez and if they aren’t going to sign a masher to handle the DH role, acquiring two more potent outfield bats will give them more flexibility.
Why this doesn’t make sense: If the Sox were going to go to $175 million to keep Bogaerts, they probably would’ve already done it. More realistically, they’d rather be a big player on Carlos Correa or trade for a less expensive middle infielder and focus their spending on upgrading the pitching staff. Bloom hasn’t shown the desire to deplete the farm system and pulling off a trade for O’neill could be tricky.
Option 2: A well-rounded, roster-shuffle approach.
Roster moves: Sign LHP Carlos Rodon (five years, $150 million), sign LHP Taylor Rogers three years, $27 million), sign RHP David Robertson (two years, $16 million), trade prospects to the Brewers for SS Willy Adames, sign Jose Abreu (two years, $36 million).
Why this makes sense: Rodon is exactly the kind of pitcher the modern day Red Sox would invest in. He’s a bit of an injury risk, but with an insane strikeout rate of more than 12 batters per nine innings over the last two years, he comes with the upside of a front-line starter at a mid-rotation starter’s salary. The Sox are desperate for bullpen help and will need to address the ‘pen via free agency and trades, but linking Rogers and Robertson could solve those issues quickly. The offense would still be light on power, but if they add Abreu and Adames, a pair of guys with 30-homer potential, they could fill out the roster with a low-cost outfielder and hope that Trevor Story, Rafael Devers and Triston Casas can round out a potent offense.
Why this doesn’t make sense: Bloom hasn’t spent on relievers and comes from a Rays organization that believes in stockpiling low-cost arms that could turn into effective relievers. Signing on high-end relievers in free agency would be out of character.
Option 3: The bold approach.
Roster moves: Sign SP Jacob degrom (three years, $135 million), sign OF Brandon Nimmo (five years, $110 million), sign OF Mitch Haniger (three years, $39 million), trade prospects to the A’s for catcher Sean Murphy.
Why this makes sense: The Red Sox don’t have any simple ways to jump from fifth place to the top of the American League East, but signing an ace like degrom would be about as good as it gets for a team trying to buy its way into playoff contention. It’s rare that Hall of Fame pitchers are available and the Sox would be foolish not to try to snag one of degrom or Justin Verlander. Nimmo would provide the kind of patient leadoff hitter the Sox have been desperate to land since Mookie Betts was traded. Hanniger and Murphy give them a ton of right-handed power that they really need. All Bloom would have to do is find some bargain bullpen arms and this team could roll.
Why this doesn’t make sense: The Sox have long been known to avoid paying pitchers in their 30s and might especially feel that way after the Sale contract and David Price contract blew up in their faces. They’d be heavily invested in the health of degrom and Sale, neither of which is guaranteed.