Bracket could be rough road
Where Huskies stand in latest bracketology after Creighton win
In the six days since the NCAA Tournament selection committee revealed its first top 16 rankings, a projected 1-seed, two 2-seeds and three 4-seeds have been upset by conference opponents.
Meanwhile, the Uconn women’s basketball team (23-5, 15-0 Big East) continues to dominate the Big East, earning what will likely be its final ranked win of the regular season over No. 21 Creighton on Monday. The committee released its rankings two days after Uconn lost 83-65 at No. 1 South Carolina, and the Huskies would face a gauntlet in the tournament based on that projection at No. 12 as the lowest-ranked 3-seed.
In Uconn’s Albany 1 regional, the committee also placed the Gamecocks as the top overall seed with UCLA as the 2-seed and Louisville the 4-seed. The Huskies have faced all three of those teams already in 2023-24, losing to UCLA, 78-67, on Nov. 24 and beating Louisville 86-62 on Dec. 16. But after the Bruins fell to Oregon State on the road last Friday and the Cardinals dropped ACC games against Syracuse and NC State, that will almost certainly change by the next top 16 reveal on Feb. 29.
Here’s where Uconn stands in the latest NCAA Tournament bracketology with three regular-season games remaining in 2024:
ESPN
ESPN’S Charlie Creme also has the Huskies as a 3-seed, but their projected Albany 3 region is a much easier draw than the way the committee laid out Albany 1. Ohio State, which leads the Big Ten, is the 1-seed in the Huskies’ bracket with Southern California as the 2-seed and Kansas State as the 4-seed. Uconn doesn’t have anyone capable of matching up
with USC star Juju Watkins — few teams do — but the Trojans have looked vulnerable at times with their most recent loss coming against unranked Washington. Ohio State presents an opportunity for the Huskies to avenge last year’s early exit when they were upset as a 2-seed by the 3-seed Buckeyes, especially with Paige Bueckers available this time.
But first Uconn would have to get out of the first two rounds hosted in Storrs, and that may be easier said than done. Creme projects Chattanooga as the Huskies’ first-round opponent, which is easy to pencil in as a win, but their second round opponent would be either 6-seed Baylor or the winner of an 11-seed play-in game between Maryland and Texas A&M. Baylor has been wildly inconsistent, beating No. 5 Texas, No. 18 Utah and No. 22 West Virginia while also losing to unranked Iowa State, Kansas and BYU.
The Huskies handled Maryland 80-48 back in November, and the Aggies have floundered in the SEC. But it’s dangerous to underestimate Maryland coach Brenda Frese, with three Final Four appearances on her resume, and A&M has the personnel to contend with Uconn’s balanced offense with four players averaging at least 10 points per game.
Her Hoop Stats
Her Hoops Stats’s Megan Gauer last updated her bracket on Feb. 16, so the projections closely align with the committee’s. Gauer kept the Huskies as the 3-seed in the Albany 1 regional with 1-seed South Carolina, 2-seed UCLA and 4-seed Louisville. A first-round matchup with Grand Canyon shouldn’t give Uconn any trouble, but Her Hoop Stats also projects a potential secondround game against 6-seed Baylor or 11-seed Minnesota.
The Huskies routed Minnesota 62-44 on Nov. 19, even despite Bueckers having one of her worst performances of the season in just her fourth game back from an ACL tear in 2022-23. The Golden Gophers have pulled off upsets in the Big Ten, but a six-game losing streak that just ended Saturday doesn’t inspire much confidence in their postseason potential.
The Bears, like Uconn, are guardheavy and somewhat undersized without a standout big to complement forward Dre’una Edwards, which could present one of the most interesting early-round matchups of the tournament. The teams last met in the postseason when the Huskies upset Kim Mulkey’s Bears 69-67 in the 2021 Final Four.
The Athletic
The Athletic’s Mark Schindler is the only bracketologist currently projecting a long road trip for Uconn to the Portland 1 regional, which would mark the second year in a row the Huskies would travel cross-country after the first two rounds. Last season Uconn was the 2-seed in the Seattle regional, though the 2023 region on the East Coast was farther from home in Greenville, South Carolina.
Schindler, who updated his bracket Monday following a tumultuous Week 15, placed the Huskies as a 4-seed in the Portland 1 region alongside 1-seed NC State, 2-seed Iowa and 3-seed Oregon State. It’s a challenging but balanced draw for Uconn, headlined by a chance to redeem a Week 1 loss to the Wolfpack in Raleigh. NC State beat the Huskies 92-81 on Nov. 12, and that was before Azzi Fudd’s ACL tear and Caroline Ducharme’s season-ending head and neck issues.
But getting to a Sweet 16 meeting with the Wolfpack would be no small task in The Athletic’s projection. After a firstround meeting with Marshall in Storrs, the Huskies would likely face one of the scariest non-hosts in the tournament in 5-seed Utah. The Utes, led by reigning Pac-12 Player of the Year Alissa Pili, have plenty of odd losses on their resume, but they’re capable of beating just about anyone. They dethroned Colorado, who the committee projected as a 1-seed, on Friday, and upset USC and UCLA backto-back at the end of January.
Even if Uconn overcame both Utah and NC State, the buzzsaw known as Caitlin Clark would presumably be waiting for them in the Elite Eight. Iowa is far from invulnerable with losses to Ohio State, Kansas State and unranked Nebraska, but the Huskies have struggled to contain elite guards all season and it doesn’t get much more elite than Clark. The Iowa star is averaging 32.8 points, 8.5 assists and 6.9 rebounds per game, and Uconn has allowed at least 21 points to the opponent’s top guard in every loss this season.