March Madness projections for Huskies
It was a surprise to Uconn women’s basketball coach Geno Auriemma when the Huskies were sent west to the Seattle regional in last year’s NCAA Tournament, and even though Albany is drastically closer to Storrs than Portland in 2024, 39 years have taught him that anything is possible when it comes to March Madness.
“I’m still not crazy about only having two regionals, and the only thing worse than having two regionals is having one on the East coast and one on the West coast,” Auriemma joked. “But wherever you go, that’s where you go. You have to earn the right to play close to home, and if we didn’t earn the right to play close to home then we won’t … Wherever we end up, that’s where we end up. Starting to worry about where you’re going to be, who you’re playing, who’s in you’re bracket, that’s a recipe for knowing you’re going to get the exact opposite of what you what.”
No. 10 Uconn (29-5) secured its automatic bid to the tournament by winning the Big East Tournament championship last week, and the Huskies are also all but guaranteed to host the first two rounds at Gampel Pavilion in Storrs. They will find out the rest of their bracket and their potential regional site on Selection Sunday when the full 68-team field is revealed at 8 p.m. on ESPN.
This year’s NCAA Tournament marks a redemption opportunity for Uconn, which made its earliest exit from the postseason since 2007 when it was upset by Ohio State in the Sweet 16. But that was without Paige Bueckers, who carried the Huskies to the national championship game after missing 19 games to have surgery on a tibial plateau fracture in 2021-22.
Bueckers had three of her most complete performances of the season in the Big East Tournament, averaging 27.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.3. assists, four blocks and three steals across the weekend. Aaliyah Edwards, who averages 17.8 points and 9.3 rebounds, is also expected to return from a broken nose for the NCAA Tournament, so nothing is impossible for the Huskies in March.
With just a few days until Selection Sunday, here’s a look at where Uconn is expected to land in various bracketology projections.
ESPN
Uconn has moved around quite a bit in Charlie Creme’s projections over the last month, but they remain on the three line in his latest update ahead of Sunday’s reveal. After hosting the first two rounds, ESPN has the Huskies making the cross-country road trip to the Portland 3 regional, headlined by 1-seed Stanford and 2-seed LSU.
Uconn’s potential early-round opponents don’t look terribly threatening in Creme’s bracket, though 6-seed Duke at its best has pulled off multiple top-25 upsets. However, LSU presents a fascinating potential matchup in the Sweet 16 that could go either way for the Huskies. Angel Reese and Aneesah Morrow are certainly a duo that can contend with Bueckers and Edwards, and Hailey Van Lith is exactly the kind of guard that Uconn has struggled to contain in its losses. But the Tigers lack a true ball-handler with guard Last-tear Poa out due to a head injury, and they lean on a rotation that is almost as shallow as Auriemma’s. That makes them exactly the kind of opponent that Uconn can exploit with its pace and transition play, especially if Bueckers’ hand stays hot.
Stanford is also a favorable draw among the project 1-seeds, especially coming off of a loss in the Pac-12 Tournament Championship. The Cardinal were also upset in last season’s conference tournament and went on to make an early exit as a 1-seed March Madness with a second-round loss to 9-seed Ole Miss. The Cardinal have proven plenty vulnerable to upsets with losses to Gonzaga and Arizona. The biggest challenge for Uconn would be limiting Stanford’s high-powered front court of Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen, but the teams are similarly reliant on a third scorer emerging.
ESPN also projects a possible homecoming for Vanderbilt coach Shea Ralph, whose Commodores were predicted to land in an 11-seed play-in game for a spot in Uconn’s first-round host site. Ralph played for the Huskies from 1996-2001 and led Vanderbilt to it’s first 20-win season since 2012-13 this year.
The Athletic
The Athletic also projects that the Huskies’ path will run through Stanford as a 3-seed in the Portland 4 regional, though Mark Schindler gives Uconn a much harder draw down the bracket than ESPN. Texas is the projected 3-seed in the region, and the Longhorns already beat the Huskies this season 80-68 in Austin on Dec. 3. That was with star guard Rori Harmon, but freshman Madison Booker has risen to fill her shoes and led Texas to the Big 12 Tournament title.
Louisville is the projected 6-seed in at Storrs first-round site, which would be another familiar opponent for Uconn. Edwards and Bueckers combined for 42 points in an 86-62 win over the Cardinals on Dec. 16, though Aubrey Griffin led the team with 25 points and is now out for the season with an ACL tear suffered Jan. 3. Still, Louisville has struggled through the latter part of ACC play going 5-5 to end the regular season before losing to Notre Dame in the quarterfinal of the conference tournament.
Her Hoop Stats
While the others have Uconn headed to Portland, Megan Gauer projects a much shorter trip for Huskies fans, to the Albany 3 regional in the latest Her Hoop
Stats bracket. Gauer also has Louisville and Vanderbilt squaring off opposite Uconn in the first round at the Storrs site, so the second round would be either a rematch with the Cardinals or Ralph’s first time coaching against her former coach.
Her Hoop Stats’s Albany 3 regional is lead by 1-seed Iowa and 2-seed UCLA, and the Bruins would be a less-than-ideal opponent for Uconn in the Sweet 16. Behind 24 points from sophomore Kiki Rice, UCLA beat the Huskies 78-67 on Nov. 24 at the Cayman Island Classic — and that was also with Griffin still playing. The No. 6 Bruins had some struggles during Pac-12 play when Lauren Betts missed four games, but they returned to form taking No. 3 USC to overtime in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals.
If the Huskies could overcome UCLA, the potential to watch Bueckers square off with Caitlin Clark is always an exciting idea. Bueckers and Clark have each won a Naismith Trophy and reached a national championship game in their careers, but Uconn is 2-0 against Clark’s Iowa with or without its superstar on the court. Bueckers led the Huskies past the Hawkeyes 92-72 in the Sweet 16 of the 2021 NCAA Tournament, and Uconn also beat Iowa 86-79 during the 2022-23 regular season when Bueckers was injured.