Should Pats stick with QB pick at 3?
Pats’ best 1st-round trade isn’t a trade back, it’s a deal to land a WR or OT
One week ago, half a continent away, the Vikings sent football imaginations spinning in New England.
In a trade with Houston, the Vikings acquired the No. 23 overall pick, giving them two-first round selections and two major building blocks for another move up into the top five. Minnesota, theoretically, could now approach the Patriots about the third overall pick or Arizona at No. 4 after letting starting quarterback Kirk Cousins walk in free agency. Do they want to trade up for Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels? Maybe J.J. Mccarthy?
Should the Patriots engage? Flatly, no.
A franchise quarterback is the rarest, most valuable commodity in the sport, and the only reliable place they can be found on earth is the top five of the NFL Draft. Unless Patriots de facto GM Eliot Wolf and head coach Jerod Mayo are sure to their core that Maye and Daniels are unfit to become their next face of the franchise, they should stay put and pick one after Washington and Chicago presumably take quarterbacks. Then, develop him.
Franchise quarterbacks are not just game-changers, they are world-changers. Forces strong enough to reshape legacies, local economies and the sports identity of a region. Just ask Buffalo about Josh Allen. Or Cincinnati about Joe Burrow. Or Baltimore about Lamar Jackson. Or, of course, Kansas City about Patrick Mahomes.
All of them became playoff teams by Year 2 of their quarterbacks’ careers. Naturally, none of these players were guaranteed to find greatness at the time of their selection. No kidding.
The NFL Draft is a series of bets, pick by pick, prospect by prospect. The risk of the draft is as obvious and established as real gambling (ask your friends and fellow fans about Mac Jones). It needs no further explanation, though for our purposes it’s worth remembering the hit rate on first-round quarterbacks hovers around 30%.
But again, the payoff is substantial. Life-changing. And the only other roster-building avenues available — trade and free agency — don’t lead to top-10 quarterbacks. No team in its right mind is trading such a player, especially with the franchise tag available. As for free agency, over the past four offseasons, the best quarterbacks to sign on the open market have been 35-year-old Kirk Cousins coming off a torn Achilles, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
If you want to roll the dice with them, good luck.
Furthermore, the Patriots are in no rush to actualize Daniels’ potential, or Maye’s, at the risk of ruining them. This rebuild will be a slow burn, as foretold by Wolf ’s comments at the combine, and the front office’s actions since then. If the team isn’t ready for the rookie, or vice versa, they’ll sit him in favor of Jacoby Brissett. Brissett is here to take the hits until the kid can.
Still, the Pats can raise their next quarterback’s odds of hitting by bolstering the talent around them. That starts with a trade.
Not a trade back from No. 3 overall, but a move up into the back end of the first round.
The 2024 draft class is rich with wide receivers and offensive tackles, the two biggest holes on the Patriots’ roster. The front office must, must draft at least one Day 1 starter at either position, or ideally both.
Upwards of 11 wide receivers could go in the top 50, according to draft experts, but only a few fit that mold and the type of wideout the Patriots need: an “X” receiver. A big-bodied weapon who can win in isolation, and isn’t scheme dependent to get open. Not a slot receiver (Demario Douglas and K.J. Osborn) or a slot/z target without game-breaking speed or quickness (Juju Smith-schuster and Kendrick Bourne).
Of course, the Patriots could hope and wait until their second-round pick at 34th overall for a receiver like that. But there are two projected Day 1 starters within striking distance at the end of the first round who fit that exact mold: LSU’S Brian Thomas Jr. and Texas product Adonai Mitchell.
If the Patriots aren’t sold on Thomas or Mitchell, offensive tackle makes as much, if not more sense, for a trade back up. They have no identifiable starter at left tackle, and cannot protect any quarterback like that, let alone a face of the franchise.
Enter Washington’s Troy Fautanu, Georgia’s Amarius Mims or Arizona’s Jordan Morgan, all projected first-round picks and rookie starters. Oklahoma right tackle Tyler Guyton offers another option, though he spent most of his college career at right tackle. All of them are expected to come off the board in the back half of the first round.