Lightning’s toughest rival is the salary cap
TAMPA — Stanley Cups. Vezina, Norris and Hart honors. A Presidents’ Trophy and 40 more playoff games than any other hockey team.
For the better part of a decade, we have watched the Lightning leave their mark across NHL record books.
Which brings us to today, to a new season, and what may be their boldest quest yet:
Remaining relevant.
Ten years after their first playoff appearance under Jon Cooper, the Lightning are trying to extend their stay among the NHL’s elite well beyond the normal expiration date of such things. If this was 1973 or 1983 or some other bygone era, the aim would not seem so audacious.
But in today’s world of free agency, salary caps and expansion, the Lightning are pushing the boundaries of accepted wisdom. If you doubt that, consider the fortunes of the two most successful franchises of the salary cap era:
From 2009 to 2015, the Blackhawks reached the conference finals five times and won three Stanley Cups. But since that seven-year stretch, they have gone eight consecutive seasons without winning a playoff series.
From 2008 to 2017, the Penguins won four conference championships and three Stanley Cups. But after that 10-year run, Pittsburgh has won only one playoff series in the next six seasons.
So have the Lightning reached the edge of a similar cliff?
Has free agency (Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Blake Coleman, Kevin Shattenkirk), salary cap-necessitated trades (Ryan McDonagh, Tyler Johnson, Barclay Goodrow, Ross Colton, Pat Maroon), the expansion draft (Yanni Gourde) and go-for-broke deals that wiped out several draft classes come at the cost of an inevitable rebuild?
The circumstances are not exactly alike, but there are similarities between the journeys taken by the Lightning, Blackhawks and Penguins.
Chicago won that first Cup in 2010 when Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews were 21 and 22, and defenseman Duncan Keith won the first of his two Norris trophies. Other players came and went, but that trio remained
constant throughout the three Cup runs.
Pittsburgh won for the first time in 2009 when Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were 21 and 22, and All-Star defenseman Kris Letang and goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury were also in their early 20s. That core group of four players had a hand in all three Stanley Cups.
The Lightning, similarly, have been built around Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy since reaching the Stanley Cup final against Chicago nine seasons ago. That foursome, along with Brayden Point, played all 17 games in the 2017-18 postseason when the Lightning reached the Eastern Conference final, and have remained at each other’s sides ever since.
So here’s the question:
What happened in Chicago and Pittsburgh, and how do the Lightning avoid it?
It’s the usual story of time and injuries as star players grow into their 30s, but the salary cap is the real culprit. As teams enjoy more success, the status of core players is elevated along with their paychecks. Soon, half the payroll is eaten up by a handful of stars and it’s challenging to keep a solid supporting cast around them.
Toews and Kane, for instance, were on entry-level contracts when Chicago won the Cup in 2010 with base salaries below $1 million. Still, the Blackhawks were over the salary cap and had to part ways with starting goaltender Antti Niemi, as well as Kris Versteeg, Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien, Colin Fraser and Brent Sopel in the offseason. After Chicago had won Cups in 2013 and 2015, Toews and Kane had signed contract extensions that, combined, were eating up nearly 30% of the salary cap.
Since then, the Blackhawks are 4-12 in the postseason.
The trick, or perhaps it is an impossibility, is to have enough stars to be a Stanley Cup contender year after year while having enough salary cap space for the necessary role players. It’s easier in the earlier stages of a Cup run when the stars haven’t yet cashed in with fat contracts and when the farm system is fully stocked.
When the Lightning began the 201920 season, Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak were all 22 or younger, and playing meaningful minutes every night. The Lightning also dealt a pair of first-round draft picks to bring in Goodrow and Coleman at the trade deadline. Later, they would give up three more first-round picks in trades for Brandon Hagel and David Savard.
Now, all these years later, Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak and Hagel have signed lucrative deals that will take an increasing chunk out of the salary cap, and a generation of Tampa Bay first-round picks are scattered around other NHL systems.
Please, do not confuse any of this with criticism. The Lightning have been bold when it comes to bringing in necessary help and ruthless when it comes to recognizing when to let familiar faces walk away. In fact, the hope is that the lack of sentimentality is what will set Tampa Bay apart from other teams facing similar questions.
That explains why the Lightning are facing a possible future without Stamkos.
There is not a single Lightning player — there may not be a single athlete in Tampa Bay history — who can match Stamkos’ impact, longevity and popularity in the community. It would be a crying shame if he did not finish his career in a Bolts uniform.
But general manager Julien BriseBois is doing the prudent thing to wait out this season to get a better feel for the team’s direction and Stamkos’ future. Three things must coincide — the salary cap, the Lightning’s chances of winning and Stamkos’ continued value — for another long-term deal to make sense.
I’m pretty sure Stamkos will continue to play at a high level, and I’m certain the salary cap will continue to be a challenge.
The only remaining question is can the Lightning continue to win?