Without QB Travis, Seminoles face uphill battle to stay perfect, reach CFP
From a raw emotion standpoint, the Florida State-Florida matchup Saturday night at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium should be epic because of the horrific adversity facing each football program, the worst being season-ending injuries to both starting quarterbacks.
Beyond Jordan Travis (left leg) and Graham Mertz (collarbone) being sidelined, you have the unbeaten Seminoles (11-0) trying to stay in contention for a College Football Playoff berth. On the Gators’ side, they need a win to get bowl-eligible and also keep coach Billy Napier’s detractors from making more noise about his job security.
With differing high stakes riding on the outcome, the ‘Noles being a touchdown favorite on the road with dependable Tate Rodemaker as Travis’ replacement is still a bit dicey.
It’s not inconceivable Florida (5-6) could beat FSU for the fourth time in the last five meetings, especially since the Gators were one play away last week from knocking off No. 10 Missouri in Columbia.
One major problem — a completely unreliable defense — makes it difficult to think the Gators can actually pull it off.
Whether it’s Florida having to play an inordinate number of first-year freshmen or defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong designing a defense that’s too complicated, the Gators can never seem to stop opponents in big moments.
They couldn’t keep LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels from accumulating 606 yards total offense and five touchdowns in a 52-35 loss. They almost had Arkansas beat at home, only to let quarterback KJ Jefferson convert a first-and-20 in overtime of a 39-36 setback.
Another gut punch was not stopping Missouri on fourth-and-17 to win the game, instead allowing a 27-yard pass from Brady Cooke to Luther Bolden that enabled the Tigers kick a gamewinning field goal.
Florida’s defense has been historically bad the past four seasons — allowing 375, 348 and 370 points from 2020-22 — and is on a similar track this season by allowing 307 points in 11 games.
Only this year, it feels more exasperating because the Gators are on the verge of setting a program low for yards allowed per rush (5.0) and yards per play (6.7). They’ve also given up a nation-worst 20 pass plays of 40-plus yards and have only seven takeaways, tied for second-worst in the country.
FSU’s offense may be significantly diminished without Travis, but its defense is 12th nationally in points allowed (16.9) and No. 3 in third-down efficiency. The ‘Noles can still beat Florida and Louisville in the ACC Championship game if Rodemaker takes care of the ball and the defense upholds its end.
Florida has a lot smaller margin for error. While QB Max Brown is a bigger dual threat than Mertz, it’s asking a lot for someone making his first collegiate start to offset a Gators’ defense that doesn’t force turnovers and allows too many chunk plays.
Napier must address all these deficiencies in the offseason, possibly demanding that Armstrong tailor the defense to better fit the personnel or finding a new coordinator.
As for the present, losing Travis will likely end FSU’s perfect season at some point. It’s just difficult to see the Gators playing spoiler unless the defense can stop rolling over.
Florida State 30, Florida 24.
Balancing use of Etienne backups
When Jacksonville Jaguars thirdround rookie draft pick Tank Bigsby had a red-zone fumble in Week 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, then saw a fast-ball pass from Trevor Lawrence go off his hands for an interception in the next game against the San Francisco 49ers, the coaching staff had to decide how that would impact playing time for Travis Etienne’s backup going forward.
Over the next two games, veteran back D’Ernest Johnson was on the field for 29 snaps after playing only 9 snaps in the previous five-game stretch.
It’s not like head coach Doug Pederson or offensive coordinator Press Taylor are putting Bigsby in cold storage.
They gave him an opportunity in a fourth-and-1 situation last week when the Jaguars were up by a comfortable 27-7 margin over the Tennessee Titans, and Bigsby moved the chains. It was his only snap until the Auburn product ran the ball eight consecutive times in a run-out-the-clock situation on the Jaguars’ final possession.
Moving forward, the question becomes how much the Jaguars will trust Bigsby in big-game moments when Etienne needs a breather? Or does Johnson continue to get the majority of snaps when Etienne needs a breather?
Deion hype train slows down
It seems like forever ago when Colorado first-year coach Deion Sanders was all the rage in college football, getting his Buffaloes off to a 3-0 start that included a 45-42 upset of TCU despite being a three-touchdown underdog.
Since Colorado began Pac-12 play, it has lost seven of eight games and stands in last place in the league. On paper, it looks like Sanders’ program bottomed out, but that would be a misleading narrative.
Colorado wasn’t expected to win more than three or four games when the season began. Then expectations were raised after the hot start, getting out of whack with national media when quarterback Shedeur Sanders, Deion’s son, and two-way star Travis Hunter were balling and gaining major attention.
Last week’s 56-14 shellacking at Washington State officially took the Buffaloes (4-7) out of bowl contention, but the current five-game losing streak isn’t as dire for Colorado’s future as it seems. Three defeats were against ranked teams, two by one-score margins to Arizona and Oregon State.
Colorado has clearly improved in its first season under Sanders. When it moves to the Big 12 next season, don’t be surprised if the team currently sitting at the bottom of the Pac-12 has success and sustains it longer than three games.
Quick-hitting nuggets
Florida State fans upset over the team dropping from No. 4 to No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings behind Washington should take a deep breath. The ‘Noles should just worry about beating Florida and Louisville, then wait to see if the selection committee dares to leave out an unbeaten Power 5 conference champion from the CFP. Should Mike Norvell’s program get excluded for a one-loss team that doesn’t win its league, then FSU can rightfully release some outrage. …
Pigskin forecast
Jaguars over Houston Texans by 11 (Battle Red antidotes); Indianapolis Colts over Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 (Gardner Minshew audition tapes); Baltimore Ravens over Los Angeles Chargers by 7 (Brandon Staley salty explanations); Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 (last-second field goal); Michigan over Ohio State by 4 (us-against-the-world mantras); UCF over Houston by 7 (bowl invitations). Last week: 5 right, 2 Charissa Thompson acting jobs.