Favorites and longshots for Sunday race at Bristol

In nearly a third of the Cup Series races, a winner can emerge from the big group of supporting actors.

Six plate races and five road courses can deliver a Daniel Suarez, Michael McDowell or AJ Allmendinger to Victory Lane.

Bristol, not so much. Run down the all-time list of Bristol winners and you won’t find many surprises or even mild surprises. That doesn’t mean you won’t find any.

Twice this century, it’s happened. Chris Buescher’s win two years ago might not seem like a shocker, given what happened to Buescher the following season. But at the time, it was just his second career win, his first in six years, and his first that wasn’t weather-shortened.

Twenty-one years earlier, in 2001, Elliott Sadler made Bristol’s spring race the first of his three career wins. So, yep, we’re saying there’s a chance.

If you’re practically allergic to betting on favorites (“Guilty!”), and if you think lightning can strike more than twice in 23 years, take a gander at the middle of Bristol’s odds board, from No. 15 through No. 23 on the chart.

Ready for a Bristol bolt from the blue?

Erik Jones +4000; Bubba Wallace +4000; Alex Bowman +5000; Michael McDowell +6000; Chase Briscoe +6000; Noah Gragson +7500; Carson Hocevar +7500; Josh Berry +10000; Daniel Suarez +10000

Only one guy from this group wouldn’t make me do a serious double-take.

Alex Bowman.

Yeah, I know, it hasn’t been very good. The winless skid is at 65. But unless there are issues of which we’re unaware, you gotta remember he’s in a Hendrick car and eventually — eventually, right? — he’s gonna start picking off the occasional win again. Right?

Why not Sunday?

If you’re looking for low(ish) risk and reward

Kyle Larson +550; William Byron +600; Denny Hamlin +650; Chase Elliott +900; Christopher Bel +900; Ryan Blaney +1000

Seems like an odd week for ol’ Chase to sneak back into the huddle of favorites, given that he’s 0-for-13 on Bristol’s concrete. He’s led his share of laps there, however, so maybe this is the week he gets back on the beam.

— Reach Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com