Recent QB picks are already infamous
X plus three years is generally accepted as the appropriate time span to fairly evaluate a given NFL draft.
And while the 2021 “Player Selection Meeting” had already come into fairly clear focus, its near-rampant disappointment from a quarterback perspective continues to crystallize. Top pick Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars has been far closer to average than the generational prospect he was labeled to be. Yet he seems Canton-caliber compared to draftmates Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones, who will all be on teams different from the ones that drafted them next season if, as expected, the Jets soon part ways with Wilson.
And while the indictment of the 2021 NFL draft’s arms may smack of recency bias, some of its members have truly earned a spot on this list of the 50 hugest busts of the past 50 years.
1. QB Ryan Leaf, 2nd overall 1998, Chargers
It seems patently obvious who was superior more than a quarter-century after the fact, but he was very much in the conversation to be this draft’s No. 1 pick. Of course, the Colts wisely chose eventual five-time league MVP Peyton Manning. Meanwhile, the Bolts set themselves back years by taking Leaf (4-14 in 18 starts for the club with a 48.8 passer rating), whose gross immaturity and inability to solve pro defenses trumped his vast physical talent. What cements his infamy is the price San Diego paid to simply swap its initial No. 3 pick to get Arizona’s spot at No. 2 (more on that later). But the freight the Cardinals commanded, aside from the switch, was a second-rounder, an additional first-rounder in 1999 and two veterans (WR Eric Metcalf and LB Patrick Sapp). Oof.
2. OT Tony Mandarich, 2nd overall 1989, Packers
The Sports Illustrated cover boy deemed “The Incredible Bulk” prior to the draft – he had uncommon athleticism and size for the position at the time – was labeled “The NFL’s Incredible Bust” by SI only three years later. Mandarich’s steroid-fueled body and poor work ethic didn’t hold up against professional competition, and he later descended into drug and alcohol abuse. Any value he later provided at guard might have helped the Colts but obviously didn’t do the Pack any good. But this context truly frames his failure: Mandarich was the only player selected in the top five that year who didn’t wind up in the Hall of Fame.
3. QB JaMarcus Russell, 1st overall 2007, Raiders
It turned out to be a miserable year for passers, the likes of Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck and Drew Stanton also taken way too early. But Russell, who began his career with a lengthy holdout, never fulfilled the hype generated by his howitzer arm and legendary pro day. He lasted just three seasons, losing 18 of 25 starts and compiling an abysmal 65.2 passer rating, before laziness and weight gain washed him out of the league.
4. QB Jeff George, 1st overall 1990, Colts
He looked like Uncle Rico, threw like him, too ... and basically played like the “Napoleon Dynamite” folk hero. Navigating into the top spot for George forced Indianapolis to surrender Pro Bowl OT Chris Hinton, future Pro Bowl WR Andre Rison and a first-round pick in 1991 to Atlanta – where George wound up himself in 1994 after wearing out his welcome with a bad attitude and 14-35 record for the Colts, who passed on three eventual Hall of Famers in the first round (more on them later).
5. QB Trey Lance, 3rd overall 2021, 49ers
San Francisco surrendered four picks, three of them first-rounders, to get into position for a guy who was basically a one-year starter at North Dakota State. In fairness to Lance, incumbent QB Jimmy Garoppolo, subsequent injuries and a shoddy development plan that HC Kyle Shanahan largely blamed himself for derailed Lance before he had a legitimate chance to prove himself in Silicon Valley. But the Niners saw enough to pull the plug after two years, opting to give the reins to 2022 seventhrounder Brock Purdy and sending Lance to Dallas for a Round 4 pick.
5a. QB Zach Wilson, 2nd overall 2021, Jets
Now queue up the unfortunate 2021 QB corollaries – and brace yourself, Jets fans, as this is merely the first of many mentions. The NYJ effectively threw in the towel on Wilson in 2023 after trading for four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers … then were quickly forced to turn back to the BYU product, who again miserably failed in his third attempt to produce at a level commensurate with his draft billing. Now it seems only a matter of time until Wilson is an ex-Jet, his NFL completion rate (57%) and passer rating (73.2) married to 23 TD passes and 34 turnovers. The mistake is magnified by the fact the Jets could have augmented the roster in 2021 around then-QB Sam Darnold with Chase, Sewell, Surtain or Parsons, among others, all available.
5b. QB Justin Fields, 11th overall, Bears
Recently traded to Pittsburgh, maybe a passer with titillating ability resurrects his career with the Steelers. But not before the Bears sent four draft selections (two first-rounders) to the Giants to get Fields three years ago … then almost completely failed to put a legitimate supporting cast around him for two seasons. Many of Fields’ frequent failures must be laid at the doorstep of the organization, one that’s been so bad in recent years that it quickly finds itself in position to replace him this year – with a much better group of players present to help presumed 2024 top pick Caleb Williams.
5c. QB Mac Jones, 15th overall, Patriots
With the help of former New England OC Josh McDaniels, he looked like a legitimate NFL starter … for a year. Then it all fell apart for Jones, also largely undermined by an organization that didn’t give him sufficient positional coaching or playmakers. It got so bad last year, the decision was made to send Jones home in a trade with Jacksonville, where he’ll back up Lawrence as a second- or thirdstringer in 2024.
6. RB Lawrence Phillips, 6th overall 1996, Rams
Bad player. Bad dude. And St. Louis should have known better. The Rams parted with DT Sean Gilbert to acquire the Phillips pick – Eddie George was still available – and they exported Jerome Bettis to Pittsburgh in a separate deal to clear the way for Nebraska’s fallen star. Phillips averaged 3.4 yards per carry and didn’t make it through his second season with the Rams, cut amid excessive in-season drinking.
7. Jets’ decisions to trade down in 1997
After going 1-15 in 1996, Gang Green most definitely earned the No. 1 pick of the ‘97 draft – which they surely would have used for Manning ... had he opted not to return to the University of Tennessee for his senior year. (And you can argue that newly acquired coach Bill Parcells could have done more to entice Manning to go pro, but that’s neither here nor there.) However after Manning was off the table, Parcells dealt down from No. 1 to No. 6 in a bid to restock this roster, passing on the opportunity to snatch future Hall of Fame LT Orlando Pace. Then Parcells dropped from No. 6 to No. 8, passing on the opportunity to get future Hall of Fame LT Walter Jones. (Ugh and ugh.) LB James Farrior, who was much better in Pittsburgh later in his career than during his Gotham stint, “headlined” New York’s forgettable haul, which could have also included Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez, who went 13th.
8. Colts’ decision to draft John Elway No. 1 in 1983
His talent obviously justified the selection, but team brass should have taken Elway seriously when he threatened to play baseball rather than for Baltimore. In the end, he launched his Hall of Fame career in Denver while the Colts were left with Hinton, backup QB Mark Herrmann, a first-round pick in 1984 (spent on G Ron Solt) and, in a year’s time, a one-way, franchise-wide ticket to Indianapolis.
9. QB Robert Griffin III, 2nd overall 2012, Washington
The team shipped three first-round picks and one in Round 2 to the Rams for the chance to take RG3. Initially, it seemed a reasonable gambit as the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors while leading a charge to the NFC East title. The rest is unfortunate history, both for Griffin personally and the organization at large. Washington is still trying to pick up the pieces.
9a. Rams’ haul for Robert Griffin III
On the opposite end of the RG3 coin? St. Louis parlayed its bounty into Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Isaiah Pead, Rokevious Watkins, Alec Ogletree, Stedman Bailey, Zac Stacy and Greg Robinson. Some decent (and notso-decent) players there, but obviously not a group that came anywhere close to salvaging the NFL in The Gateway City, much less providing the bedrock for a perennial powerhouse.
9b. DE Chase Young, 2nd overall 2020, Washington
He’s basically become the defensive version of RG3 – winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, suffering a serious knee injury and ultimately falling out of favor with the organization. A player who entered the league with astronomical expectations – reference the frequent (and unfair) Lawrence Taylor comparisons – Young had 71⁄2 sacks in 2020 … and 61⁄2 total over his next three seasons with Washington before being traded for a third-rounder last October.
10. OLB Aundray Bruce, 1st overall 1988, Falcons
Atlanta also thought it was getting the next Taylor. Nope. Bruce was no better than a sub package guy, including spot duty at tight end. There were five Hall of Famers picked elsewhere in Bruce’s draft and a pretty good pass rusher (Neil Smith) directly after him.
11. RB Bo Jackson, 1st overall 1986, Buccaneers
Don’t get it twisted – this isn’t a dig at a guy who might truly be a “once-in-alifetime” athlete. Instead, interpret it as a dig at a long-feckless franchise that chose to squander its pick even though Jackson had vowed never to play in Tampa, believing the team deliberately cost him his baseball eligibility at Auburn while trying to strong-arm him into a football-only career.
12. OT Robert Gallery, 2nd overall 2004, Raiders
He never approached his pre-draft hype and only became serviceable after moving to guard. Who could Oakland have had instead? Larry Fitzgerald,
Philip Rivers, Sean Taylor and Ben Roethlisberger heard their names called shortly after Gallery’s selection.
13. RB Blair Thomas, 2nd overall 1990, Jets
To think future Hall of Famers Cortez Kennedy and Junior Seau were sitting there. Or, if New York really had to have a tailback, eventual all-time leading rusher Emmitt Smith was around until No. 17.
14. Bills’ decision to draft Tom Cousineau No. 1 in 1979
Buffalo owned the choice after dealing O.J. Simpson to the 49ers. But Cousineau took the Canadian Football League’s money and bolted, never playing a down for the Bills. Hall of Famers Dan Hampton and Kellen Winslow went later in that first round.
15. QB Sam Darnold, 3rd overall 2018, Jets
In the former USC star’s defense, New York did next to nothing to help him succeed, Darnold’s development further hampered by foot and shoulder injuries, mono and HC Adam Gase. But given then-GM Mike Maccagnan surrendered the No. 6 overall pick (used by the Colts on future All-Pro G Quenton Nelson) and three high second-rounders to advance three slots in order to get into position for Darnold – and he seemed like a slam-dunk acquisition at the time – it’s hard to view this gamble as anything other than a failure given his inability to overcome his circumstances ... especially as QBs drafted later (2019 and 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson, 2020 MVP runner-up Josh Allen) figured out how to thrive.
16. Seahawks’ decision to trade down in 1977
They were induced to deal out of No. 2 after Tony Dorsett threatened not to play in Seattle, so the Cowboys moved up for the future Hall of Fame back. The Seahawks were left with Steve August, Tom Lynch, Terry Beeson and Glenn Carano. Who? Exactly. Guess who won the Super Bowl the following season ...
17. QB Art Schlichter, 4th overall 1982, Colts
On the field, he was horrendous (42.6 passer rating). Off the field, he was worse, his gambling problems leading to his suspension for the 1983 season and, later, prison. Schlichter’s issues also forced Baltimore into its ill-advised Elway pick the next year.
18. QB Jack Thompson, 3rd overall 1979, Bengals
The “Throwin’ Samoan” never threw very effectively in six seasons. Furthermore, Cincinnati was just fine behind center with Ken Anderson, who would lead the Bengals to their first Super Bowl two years later. Also, Phil Simms was chosen four slots after Thompson – or, if Cincy needed, like, a developmental quarterback, they could have had, uh, Joe Montana in Round 3 ...
19. DE Dion Jordan, 3rd overall 2013, Dolphins
The slender pass rusher was repeatedly suspended and only rewarded Miami with three sacks in two seasons. The Dolphins paid a first- and secondround pick to Oakland to get the Oregon prospect. Philadelphia took future AllPro OT Lane Johnson with the next selection.
20. WR Johnny ‘Lam’ Jones, 2nd overall 1980, Jets
New York hoped his Olympic speed would translate into stardom. Not so much. Jones never looked natural as a receiver, often leaving his feet while trying to catch easy passes. The next player taken was Hall of Famer Anthony Munoz, arguably the best left tackle of all time. The next receiver selected was Hall of Famer Art Monk.
21. DT Steve Niehaus, 2nd overall 1976, Seahawks
Seattle’s maiden draft selection didn’t turn out nearly as well as fellow expansion franchise Tampa Bay’s after the Bucs landed future Hall of Famer Lee Roy Selmon at No. 1. (The Seahawks recovered by acquiring HOFer Steve Largent, who was taken by the Oilers in Round 4.)