2018 NFR PREDICTIONS

THERE IS SIMPLY NOT ANOTHER

event on the planet like the Wrangler National Finals Rodeo. The electricity in the Thomas and Mack Center over 10 nights of competition can raise the hair on the back of your neck, will keep you on the edge of your seat and makes predicting who will come out on top nearly impossible.

There are the contestants—120 to be exact— who have spent countless hours driving, crisscrossing the country just for a sliver of a minute’s competition. Those miles are costly, on a bank account and a body, but a contestant’s dream of being a world champion starts with success at the PRCA- and WPRA-sanctioned rodeos during the regular season.

Then there are the animals—180 four-legged critters used for the competition each night. That doesn’t include pickup men, re-rides, flag horses or extra cattle. You can bet each one of those animals feels the electricity, too, and knows that this isn’t just another rodeo.

All of those factors, along with the money, make picking 2018 world champions challenging. We have studied their regular season, past history in Las Vegas and tried our best. But there is that money and it narrows the playing field in each event, making it possible for nearly any contestant to leave Vegas with gold.

Did we mention the money—$10 million to be exact. With nightly prizes of over $26,000 to the round winners in each event and $67,269 paid to the best contestant over 10 nights, anything can happen and probably will. And, those second through eighth place checks aren’t too shabby either.

So, with all of that being said, we have gone out on a limb and made some predictions. Whose star will shine brightest in Las Vegas? Who has momentum that will continue until the curtain falls on the 2018 season? We certainly don’t know the answers to those questions, but we’re going to roll the dice anyway.

The battle of the brothers-in-law will continue in this year’s all-around race. Last year, Trevor Brazile watched as his brotherin-law, Tuf Cooper, left Las Vegas with rodeo’s most prestigious prize—world champion all-around cowboy. It is an award that is high on Brazile’s priority list and one that he has earned 13 times before.

This year, Cooper has the edge coming into the NFR. He has led the world standings for much of the 2018 season. Both men have qualified for the Clem McSpadden National Finals Steer Roping held prior to the NFR and both are competing in the tiedown roping in Las Vegas.

Last year’s race was a fight to the end, and this year’s will surely play out similarly. There is a 14-year age difference between the two, and Cooper has watched Brazile’s climb to the top of the ladder since he was 13 years old. Having won the only buckle that says “cowboy” on it, Cooper is hungry for another one. On the flip side, Brazile is not satisfied with 13.

We expect Cooper to maintain his lead and win his second All-Around Cowboy title this year, but it will be a battle to the end. The difference between the two going into the 2018 NFR is once again marginal. They are each among the top 15 steer ropers in the world and will be vying for money at the Clem McSpadden National Finals Steer Roping prior to the NFR. There is a third guy to watch for as well. At press time, Rhen Richard was 12th in the tie-down roping and 14th in the team roping—heading. If that holds, he could overtake both Brazile and Cooper. He has a pretty big deficit so he will need to collect a bunch of cash in both events.

It’s going to be a race to the finish and will all come down to the tie-down roping.

The past two years, Iowa’s Tim O’Connell has entered the NFR as the top contender for a world championship. Each of those years has seen him leaving Las Vegas with a gold buckle.

O’Connell is the closest thing to a sure bet in the bareback riding, and that’s why he is our pick. He started off this year slow, concentrating on being a new dad rather than what was happening in the arena. His wife, Sami, gave birth to their son, Hazen, in March. And while he continued riding and collecting checks, it wasn’t until later in the season that he turned up the heat.

In June, he won his first set of championship spurs at the Reno Rodeo and followed that up with the prestigious California Rodeo Salinas buckle. He continued to inch his way up in the standings and prefers to see the rest of the field in his rearview mirror.

If one of those guys gets hot in Vegas, there could be a traffic jam in the bareback riding. Caleb Bennett has had the best year of his career, winning the big winter rodeos in Denver and San Antonio. Bennett has struggled in the past with chronic wrist and elbow issues but is healthy as he has ever been. If he ends his season like he started it, he will edge O’Connell off the road.

The real spoiler in the bareback riding has four world titles of his own. Kaycee Feild won those gold buckles consecutively (2011–14) and is returning to the NFR after a two-year hiatus. He had qualified eight consecutive years, then spent a year with the Elite Rodeo Athletes. He finished 30th last year and is still working hard to accomplish his goal of five world titles to match the record set by Joe Alexander.

There are a bunch of talented athletes in the mix, including last year’s reserve world champion, Richmond Champion. These guys are all competitive, but they also have a strong sense of camaraderie and know how to have fun. It will be fun for those watching to see who’s looking in the rearview mirror at the end of 10 nights in Vegas.

This event is the hardest to predict. The small arena at the Thomas and Mack Center has taken its toll on many steer wrestlers, and one small mistake has cost some of those a gold buckle.

It would be hard to bet against Tyler Pearson, who followed up last year’s world championship with a stellar season. His momentum carried him to wins at winter rodeos in Denver and Fort Worth. Tyler is traveling with Kyle Irwin, who hazed for him at last year’s NFR along with 2016 world champion Ty Waguespack and NFR qualifier Ty Erickson.

It doesn’t hurt that Pearson and Irwin are co-owners of Canted Plan, aka “Scooter,” who was the 2017 AQHA/ PRCA Steer Wrestling Horse of the Year. Scooter took Pearson to the top of the world standings last year. After experiencing that, he looks good for another world title. Scooter is also likely to be the mount for Waguespack, Irwin and Erickson this year in Vegas, so regardless of who wins the gold buckle, the horse is going to collect some serious mount money.

The first time Pearson ever threw a steer in the Thomas and Mack Center showed just how determined he is. He was making a practice run before the competition started in 2013. He tweaked his knee, but wanted to get another run in. The second steer was his undoing as he tore his MCL. He spent more time in the Justin Sportsmedicine training room than he did with his family but still managed to get a time on all 10 steers and place fourth in the NFR’s overall standings.

The spoilers in this race are the Canadians. Curtis Cassidy has had the best season of his career and leads the regular season. Scott Guenthner, who finished sixth in the world last year after his first trip to Vegas, also finished the season as one of the top steer wrestlers. Canada hasn’t had a world champion in this event since 2009 when Lee Graves won it.

And we can’t count out Ty Erickson who was last year’s reserve champion. Erickson entered the 2017 NFR in first place. One steer got in the way of his first world title. He’s ready to win a gold buckle for his home state of Montana.

What a race this is shaping up to be. At press time there were four world champions among the top 15 in the heading and just one in the heeling. That list includes reigning title holders Erich Rogers (heading) and Cory Petska (heeling). Other headers in the mix are Clay Tryan, Chad Masters and Aaron Tsinigine.

When it comes to picking who will leave Vegas this year with gold buckles, our money is on Kaleb Driggers and Junior Nogueira. We picked them last year and probably will continue as long as this dynamic pair is roping together.

They finished as the reserve world champions for the past two consecutive years. And Vegas has been very good to them in spite of the gold buckle eluding them. Together, they have earned $456,883 while competing on 20 steers at the NFR.

Even though Driggers grew up in Georgia and Nogueira in Brazil, the duo has similar roping styles, going for fast times and first- place finishes. Driggers has been to the NFR with several partners, but the partnership with Nogueira has lasted longer than any other. For this team, the question isn’t if they will win world titles, it’s when.

Of course, there are plenty of other talented ropers in this competitive field. Clay Smith and Paul Eaves have been had their eyes on the gold buckle for four years. Their stars have aligned during the regular season and then they have come up short. The highest they have finished in the world standings was fifth and fourth respectively.

And, we can never count Kory Koontz out. He is making his 22nd trip to Vegas and will be heeling for the second time behind Dustin Egusquiza. Koontz has had one of the best regular seasons in his career and if the momentum continues, he could be leaving this year’s NFR with a very elusive gold buckle.

No one was surprised when a member of the Wright family left Las Vegas with a saddle bronc riding world championship in 2017, except perhaps the owner of the new gold buckle, Ryder Wright. He won that championship at his second Wrangler NFR and hadn’t turned 20 years old.

Ryder Wright started last year’s NFR in 8th place and won $185,577 in Las Vegas to secure his first world title. The previous year, he started in 14th place and moved up to fourth. He has won nine rounds in just two years. His success in Las Vegas has been phenomenal, and we expect that to continue. He comes into the field as the world champion and has ended the season riding like one. There is no telling what this young man will do in his career.

It might seem like a sure bet, but we know there is no such thing in Las Vegas, in life and especially at the NFR. Jacobs Crawley has been at the top of the leaderboard the past two years and is leader of the pack. In 2015 he was in third place and moved up to win his first gold buckle. Twice he has earned the trophy saddle for having the highest total score on 10 rides.

And then there is the other Wright, Rusty, who is the oldest of Cody and ShaRee Wright’s children. He has been to Vegas two times but missed last year due to injuries. He watched his younger brother win the gold buckle from the sidelines. While it wasn’t the way he wanted it, it was good for Rusty. When he saw Ryder’s accomplishments, it gave him the confidence that he could do it, too.

There are a handful of rodeos that have been around for over 100 years, offer prize money of six figures and are legendary. Shane Hanchey won three of them this year starting in January with the National Western Stock Show in Denver. Two weeks later he won the Fort Worth Stock Show & Rodeo. Then this summer he won the “Daddy of ‘em All,” Cheyenne Frontier Days.

Hanchey has been among the top five all year and has finished the regular season strong. He’ll start the NFR in first place with a mere $1,200 lead over Tuf Cooper. He is known for riding great horses and added another one to his herd this year. He has been successful at the Wrangler NFR on “Bam Bam,” winning $78,962 on the sorrel gelding last year. He also has a full sister to him that they call “Pam.” And he owns the 2017 AQHA/ PRCA horse of the year “Si.”

With horsepower and determination on his side, Hanchey is our pick for his second world championship. He won his first in 2013, just three years after qualifying for his first NFR. This will be his ninth consecutive trip to Las Vegas.

Tyson Durfey is having a phenomenal year and has the horsepower to back up his ability as well. The 2016 world champion has been at or near the top of the world standings for much of the season. He won his gold buckle riding “Niko.” He couldn’t ride his favorite mount at last year’s NFR and that hurt. While it tested his faith, Durfey took it in stride. He and Niko have brought the crowd to their feet in the Thomas and Mack, and that certainly could happen again.

And then there is that Cooper kid. Tuf Cooper is making his 10th appearance in the tie-down roping. After winning last year’s all-around title, he is looking for a triple crown. He will have to win the tie-down roping and steer roping as well to join his father, Roy Cooper, and brother-in-law, Trevor Brazile, on that prestigious list.

The narrowest of margins separates this year’s field of tiedown ropers. This is an event where the smallest things make the biggest difference and whoever has the least amount of errors is going to be victorious.

There is a blonde bombshell that had barrel racing fans on the edges of their seats at last year’s Wrangler NFR. Her name is DM Sissy Hayday, but her fans all know her as “Sister.” She and owner Hailey Kinsel fed off of the electricity at the NFR, nearly stealing the show from Nellie Miller who won the world title.

Kinsell began her climb to the top of the regular-season standings with a big win at the San Antonio Stock Show Rodeo. It was a highlight of her season as it is a rodeo she had grown up coming to as a spectator. It is less than 100 miles from her home in Cotulla.

A win at the Calgary Stampede added over $70,000 to her earnings. Then Miller and her horse, Rafter W Minnie Reba, also known as “Sister”, won the title at Cheyenne Frontier Days. Miller has been consistently closing the gap and at press time, $45,000 separates the two.

Kinsell broke the arena record in the Thomas and Mack Center last year with a blazing 13.11-second run. She placed every time she had a clean run and those five second penalties only happened twice. She won four of the 10 rounds, moved from 10th to 2nd in the world and won more money than any other barrel racer in Las Vegas.

That’s why she is our pick. It was her first trip to Vegas and we expect her second to be even better. However, it is a marathon, not a sprint, and Miller’s proven track record over 10 nights will come into play. There’s a pretty good chance that a horse named Sister will carry her owner to a gold buckle in Vegas.

When Sage Kimzey entered the 2014 Wrangler National Finals Rodeo, there was little doubt that he would leave wearing a world champion’s buckle. The same thing happened in 2015, 2016, 2017 and looks to happen again this year.

Kimzey is the closest thing to a sure bet in this year’s competition. He has a $100,000 advantage over the next 14 bull riders, and unless he gets hurt and someone else rides 10 bulls, he will earn his fifth consecutive world title. Kimzey is undoubtedly one of the greatest bull riders rodeo has ever seen. He set a goal of beating Donnie Gay’s record for world championships and is on pace to do just that.

He does have a target on his back, and the other bull riders will be doing their best to unseat him. Their best hasn’t been good enough in the past and we think it is unlikely this year. The guy with the best chance is Parker Breding, who is behind Kimzey in the world standings. This is Breding’s fourth NFR qualification and he has had some success in Las Vegas before. But he will need more than a little luck to go along with his determination and ability to close the gap.

There is a good possibility that some records will be set with this year’s field of bull riders. It took more than $90,000 in regular-season earnings to qualify, and even if Kimzey has his predicted success in Vegas, the other 14 men behind him are going to make him work for it.