Shale oil’s best days are coming to an end

U.S. shale oil production, which reshaped the global energy equation, will begin to wane in less than a decade as reserves are drawn down and well output decreases, the Energy Department reported.

Shale and tight oil production is projected to peak in the U.S. in 2026 before beginning to decline as fields and wells become less productive, the Energy Department said. Shale and tight oil production will rise to more than 6 million barrels a day — the majority of all U.S. production — from about 4.9 million barrels a day in 2016.

The Eagle Ford in South Texas will be among the first shale fields to see production decline, beginning after 2020, according to the Energy Department. The decline of the Bakken Shale in North Dakota is projected to begin after 2030.

Production in West Texas’ Permian Basin, which is larger and deeper than other plays, is forecast to remain strong through 2040. Oil companies have flocked there as oil prices have rebounded above $50 a barrel from about $26 a barrel a year ago, spending billions to acquire land and drilling rights.

Parsley Energy of Austin, for example, recently spent $2.8 billion to acquire Permian land held by Fort Worth’s Double Eagle Energy. Earlier this year Exxon Mobil purchased land owned by the Bass family of Fort Worth for $6.6 billion.

The Permian accounts for more than half the rigs drilling for oil in the U.S.

The Energy Department analyzed other scenarios that lead to very different outcomes, the report noted. If technology continues to improve, for instance, tight oil production could rise to 11 million barrels per day, or two-thirds of total U.S. output, almost double the baseline scenario. Alternatively, if technology fails to advance significantly, oil production would falter, with tight oil accounting for less than half of U.S. output.