Q&A ON SEASON, FUTURE.
What to make of the Rockets' season and where do they go from here? Jonathan Feigen, who covers the team for the Chronicle, has the answers to the key questions.
Q: Considering everything, from the rise from 41 to 55 wins to the 39-point sendoff surrender, how should Rockets fans feel about the season?
A: Pretty tough not to have mixed feelings. The Rockets exceeded expectations and were fun to watch. They were understandably expected to be in the bottom of the playoff pack, winning 47-48 games, but instead finished with the third-best record in the NBA. They exceeded that with one of the all-time great offenses and an MVP-caliber star. But exceeding expectations built new ones. Just as losing Game 5 was a wasted opportunity, the entire series might have been. They faced the Spurs without Tony Parker and with Kawhi Leonard out for Game 6. This was a series that ended with the third-largest blowout of a home team in Games 6 or 7, and yet the Rockets could have won the series and feel as if they should have. A lot can change in the course of an NBA season. The expectations of October don’t matter in May. The Rockets proved to be a good team. But the playoffs also demonstrated how far they remain from being a contender.
Q: What do we take from the collapse?
A: James Harden’s Game 6 no-show has to leave doubts about his ability to be the best player on the NBA’s best team. It does not define him as incapable of that role. One game, good or bad, cannot define a player. But he has to show he can lead a team through the postseason. Those questions will remain no matter how many wins the Rockets collect or statistics Harden compiles in the regular season. Until Harden and the Rockets return to the postseason and the chance to finish what they have started, the Rockets have to build a more reliable defense and likely a more balanced offense. That was likely in their plans, and achievable, anyway. But the way the season ended might indicate they need leadership to assure more consistent intensity and effort, the drive that was lacking.
Q: Can the Rockets improve with the current core?
A: Putting aside that Clint Capela improved throughout his first season as a starter and likely will continue to grow as a defender and finisher, the Rockets’ core is made up of veterans in their prime. They are not going to change much. Sam Dekker or Montrezl Harrell could develop into rota- tion players. The Rockets used nearly a third of their roster on players — Kyle Wiltjer, Isaiah Taylor, Troy Williams and Chinanu Onuaku — they hope will eventually become contributors but were nowhere near their rotation this season. The Rockets’ next steps might have to come from some of the same players doing more than in their first season with Mike D’Antoni.
Q: Can that be enough?
A: That can be a significant improvement. The commitment defensively has to be more reliable, but the potential is there. The Rockets were second defensively in their run through December. Before the Game 6 debacle, they were third in the postseason and in the second round. Playing with the determination they had to begin the regular season could be enough for the Rockets to be a top-10 defense.
Q: What about the offense? Did the Spurs show how to slow Harden and the Rockets?
A: The Spurs and Thunder were determined to stay on 3-point shooters and force midrange shots. They went over screens set for Harden, defending him with length (Leonard, Jonathon Simmons and Andre Roberson) and had big men sinking in the lane to protect the rim. Harden’s efficiency and the Rockets’ 3-point shooting suffered greatly. The next step would be to attack with greater ball movement than just with Harden creating. That could be the “layers” of offense Mike D’Antoni plans to add. Harden never seemed comfortable with midrange shots, taking floaters in the lane instead. He can make the shots against defense the Spurs and Thunder left open. Teammates driving on closeouts can create much more than they did if that becomes the next part of the offense. Drive-and-kick does not have to come only from Harden on high pick-and-rolls.
Q: Can the Rockets bolster the roster in the offseason?
A: Rockets general manager Daryl Morey mentioned cap room and the Rockets can have roughly $14 million in cap space or as little as $4.4 million, depending on players with nonguaranteed contracts and the cap hold for Nene. But a person with knowledge of their plans said they are more likely to act as a team above the cap, pursuing free agents with mid-level exception money. That would not be enough for the top free agents, although if they gained enough traction with them, they could instead seek roster moves to carve out that space. Using mid-level and biannual exceptions would give the Rockets roughly as much to spend as with likely cap room and allow them to bring their current non-guaranteed players (some would be guaranteed by then) to camp. The top free agents — such as Gordon Hayward and Paul Millsap — likely will be too expensive for even the potential spending room. In the current economy, even James Johnson or Joe Ingles could be too expensive. Even with so many players under contract, however, the Rockets will remain aggressive.
Q: What do they need?
A: It’s not easy to improve a 55-win team. If they bring in a better defender, will he be as good a shooter and floor-spacer as they have? The Rockets had trouble with long, athletic wings (think Miami, Indiana, San Antonio) and could use someone to bring depth by playing either forward spot. They should not have to assign Harden to defend 7-footers again. As always, they could use more playmaking, regardless of position. Anyone who fits their offense while bringing a defensive upgrade would be welcome.
Q: What about their own guys?
A: Nene’s value was clear. He wants to be back and the Rockets want him back. They do not have Bird rights to him and likely will have to use part of the mid-level exception or cap space to get it done. They can open contract extension talks with Capela, but Morey has never signed one of his draft picks to that extension. It’s unlikely now. Troy Williams will be a restricted free agent, Bobby Brown an unrestricted free agent.
Q: Anyone else?
A: Zhou Qi, 7-2, come on down. The Rockets intend to sign the second of last season’s second-round picks this offseason. He has been working out at Toyota Center, though whether he will be with the summer league team is unclear. They don’t have a first-round pick, but have the Knicks’ and Nuggets’ second-round picks.
Q: So, considering the season and the potential to build in the offseason, how good is this team, anyway?
A: It’s a good team at the top of the echelon but below the elites. The Rockets had the third-best record in the NBA, but they were not on the heels of the Warriors and Spurs. They do not have the championship credibility of the Cavaliers. The 55-win season should not be discounted, especially with every starter under contract. As rapidly as the Rockets took to D’Antoni’s system, they will continue to grow into it in the second season. But the Rockets went just 15-9 after the All-Star break, only in part because they were locked in to the third seed early. They were the top-scoring team after the break, but their defense fell off, ranking 19th in those 24 games. They ranked seventh offensively and defensively in the playoffs. The Rockets more than made themselves relevant again; they were one of the NBA's top teams, good enough to aspire to do much more.