Growth of emissions slows, but trend not a sure thing

Fall in coal consumption and rise in renewable energy are contributing

The world isn’ t waiting for Paris.

In the past three years, carbon emissions have risen at the slow est pace worldwidesince the early 1980s, a development bolstered last year by declining coal consumption, rapidly growing renewable power and an energy bust that slowed oil and gas development, according to the British oil major B P.

In an annual report on energy trends, BP said carbon emissions were essentially unchanged in 2016 from the previous year, marking the third year ina row in which emissions fell or stayed flat and the lowest three-year average since 1981 to 1983.

In the U.S ., the world’ s second-largest emitter after China, carbon emission have fallen from a recent peak of 6.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2007 to 5.4 billion last year, amid a surge in natural gas production and a dramatic decline in coal at power plants. China put out 9.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide last year, down from a recent high of 9.2 billion in 2014.

The trends began before the international accord on climate change, known as the Paris agreement, was signed at the end of 2015 by nearly 200 nations that endorsed the goal of limiting the rise into 2 degrees Celsius. The U.S. was among the signatories, but President Donald Trump recently with drew the nation from the pact.

Th e BP report, h owever, shows that the market is moving-toward a lower-carbon environment.But whether that can be sustained remains to be seen. BP attributed the slowing pace of carbonemissions to weak energy demand, a transient development that could change a mid faster economic growth. OPEC said Tuesday it expects oil demand to rise by 2 million barrels a day this year. it is not yet clear how much of this break from the past is structural and will persist ,” B PC E OB ob Dudley said in a statement. “We need to keep up our focus and efforts on reducing carbonemissions.”

But and energy sources are contributing to carbon reductions, too. Last year, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar surged compared to fossil fuels. Oil and gas production was essentially flat, while coal demand fell for theina row, down 1.7 percent as the U.S. and China cur bed the use of the fuel.

Coal dropped to its lowest percentage of the global energy mix since 2004, at 28.1 percent of the world’s fuel sources. Global oil output rose at its slowest pace since 2009, at 0.5 percent, as production outside OPEC dropped by the most in 25 years.

Meanwhile, the supply of wind, solar and other renewable energy sources grew by acombined12 percent last year, rising to 3 percent of the global energy mix. Wind grew 16 percent; solar, 30 percent. China sur passed the U.S. last year as thew orld’s biggest renewable power producer, BP said.

Even oil companies are pouring money into renewables. Energy research firm Wood Mackenzie said in a report that major oil companies, alreadyholdings of natural gas, could shift as much as one-fifth of their drilling investments to wind, solar and otherover the next two decades.

BP said it hopes Trump will follow through on his suggestions he would be open to an alternative pa ct.

“We need to keep up our focus and efforts on reducing carbon emissions.” Bob Dudley, BP chief executive