Primary numbers show Republicans have reason for concern

Grieder: State hasn’t seen competitive races in years

Many Republicans across the country were relieved by the results of this year’s Texas primary, which was held on March 6.

The GOP already had plenty of reasons to be worried about the 2018 midterm elections. And since then, the party’s prospects have only become more bleak. “Crazy day in D.C. apparently,” I said the other day, while chatting with my dad via text. “Are you referring to the subpoena?” he said. I hadn’t even heard about a subpoena. I figured it must have had something to do with Stormy Daniels. The following day, a colleague explained that the subpoena in question came from the special counsel, Robert Mueller, and we ended up briefly puzzling over whether it’s possible, hypothetically speaking, to accidentally commit treason. After that I checked my phone and found a text from a Republican source.

“So I’m trying to find a way in which I don’t think the Russians have tapes on Trump,” he said.

Perhaps they do, and perhaps Americans will see them one day, if the Kremlin is willing to let us borrow its VCR. For my own part, though, I’ll probably continue to ignore the Russians. That’s a luxury I enjoy, because I was born in the country that won the Cold War, and there’s a lot going on here in America, too.

On Tuesday, for example, a Democrat won a special election in a Pennsylvania congressional district that Trump carried by 20 points. That was, apparently, a wake-up call for many political observers on both sides of the aisle. But in light of the circumstances, it really shouldn’t have been.

Similarly, if you’re among the Republicans who were relieved by the results of the Texas primary, I’m afraid I

have some bad news for you: The party’s hold on power in this state is no longer secure.

I realize the primary left many people with the opposite impression, even here in Texas, because 1.5 million voters opted to vote in this year’s Republican primary, whereas only 1 million weighed in on the Democrats.

But let’s remember that Democrats haven’t won a statewide office in Texas since 1994 and haven’t even come close to doing so since 1998. That’s significant, in this context, because a majority of people living in Texas today were, like me, not old enough to vote in the 1990s — and Texans who were are sometimes a bit fuzzy on the details when they talk about what those days were like. Complacent electorate

For example, I’ve heard people say that Democrats had a strong statewide slate in 2002, and they definitely had some solid candidates.

But the Democratic Senate candidate, Ron Kirk, came up short; John Cornyn won the general election with 55 percent of the vote, to Kirk’s 43 percent. The party’s gubernatorial nominee, Tony Sanchez, fared even worse: Rick Perry, who had become governor after George W. Bush was elected president, beat him by 18 points.

By the time Perry decided to step down, in 2014, the Texas electorate had become complacent. And in 2016, most of the voters I talked to were convinced of our collective irrelevance in that year’s presidential election. Since Trump won the election, things have changed. We are, as a nation, in uncharted political terrain.

Meanwhile, the majority of Texans have literally never had a chance to participate in a competitive statewide general election, or the open primary that precedes such an election in Texas. We are, collectively, inexperienced. Most of us are understandably confused about which congressional district we actually live in.

Despite all of these challenges, 2.5 million Texans voted in this year’s primary. In 2014, just 1.9 million of us managed to pull off that feat.

The explanation for the change is that the Texas Democratic Party had a serious growth spurt. The number of ballots cast on their side of the aisle nearly doubled, compared to 2014.

Many of them were cast by Texans who have no history of voting in either party’s primary, prior to this, and all of them were cast by voters who could have chosen to weigh in on their options on the other side of the aisle.

Republicans also saw an increase in turnout, but it was a much smaller one, and subject to interpretation. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick won the primary, but roughly a quarter of the voters who weighed in opted for his challenger, Scott Milder. And nearly a third voted no on a ballot proposition that asked whether abortion should be abolished in Texas. Fed up in the GOP?

There’s no way of telling how many of Milder’s voters were fed-up Republicans and how many were mischievous Democrats, or teachers who were spurred to vote by the right-wing activists who recently launched a crusade against public education and the “educrats” who support it. But they’re all free to vote for the Democratic nominee, Mike Collier, in November. Milder is encouraging them to do so, and some of them will.

And the leaders of the Republican Party of Texas are nervous about what might happen in November, even if they refuse to admit it. They should be, too. The results of this year’s primary made it clear that the party’s hold on power is no longer secure.

It’s possible that this year’s Republican nominees can get away with coasting to victory again. But it’d be risky for any of them to assume that their victory is assured. And, Texas Republicans, that’s bad news for the party — but it’s good news for the people of Texas, including you.

It’s possible that this year’s Republican nominees can get away with coasting to victory again. But it’d be risky for any of them to assume that their victory is assured.