How they match up
Trevor Ariza goes from chasing Donovan Mitchell to matching up with Kevin Durant. Few if any assignments can be more difficult. Durant made 50 percent of his shots and 54.5 percent of his 3s against the Rockets this season, though his 3-point touch has been off in the playoffs, making just 27.9 percent of his attempts. Ariza’s shooting has been off, too, making just 33.9 percent of his 3s with the Rockets struggling to get him his usual looks. The match up of P.J. Tucker and Draymond Green is especially intriguing, with Tucker one of the rare power forwards with the strength to take on Green that can also defend him at the 3-point line. Tucker is coming off his top-scoring playoff game of his career and an outstanding series, but Green is one assist per game shy of averaging a triple double in the postseason.
If there is an area in which the Rockets have been built with the Warriors in mind, it would be at forward, where Tucker’s ability to switch on to anyone from the point to center is especially important. Ariza showed similar defensive versatility in the second round, but as with a matchup with Mitchell, there are times Durant is unguardable, giving the Warriors forwards the edge.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr would not reveal his starting lineup for Game 1, which could mean turning to Kevon Looney at center, returning to JaVale McGee or going with his small, centerless lineup. Whether that group carries the “Hamptons 5” or “Death Lineup” moniker, it can be a force, with Andre Iguodala starting and either Kevin Durant or Draymond Green picking up Clint Capela. Capela’s breakout postseason demonstrated an ability to switch defensively, allowing the Rockets to stick with their starting lineup no matter who starts for the Warriors. He will have a hard time having the defensive impact against the Warriors that he had against the Jazz, with the Warriors likely to force switches and then use their tremendous ball movement and spacing to get him out of the paint and position to protect the rim. Capela, however, should be the top center in a series in which teams are often hesitant to play one.
It is hard to ignore the success of Kerr’s “Death Lineup,” but Capela has been a sensation in the postseason. He had 11 blocked shots in the past two games. On Tuesday, he had his third-consecutive game with at least four blocked shots and two steals, joining Ben Wallace in 2003 as the only players (since 1984) to have four blocks and two steals in three-consecutive playoff games. That’s enough impact to earn the edge going into the series.
There might not be a better position matchup possible in the NBA than the guards of the Rockets against the backcourt of the Warriors. The Warriors’ combination of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson might be the best-shooting backcourt in NBA history, but were kept relatively in check against the Rockets this season. Curry and Thompson averaged a combined 40.6 points per game in three games against the Rockets, six fewer than they averaged overall, and 8.4 assists. The Rockets combination of James Harden and Chris Paul averaged 46.2 points and 18.2 assists per game against the Warriors with Harden missing one game and Paul limping through the season opener. Harden’s Rockets have twice been eliminated in the postseason by the Warriors. The last time the Warriors lost a playoff series to a Western Conference team, Paul’s Clippers took them out in 2014. The Warriors smacked around the Clippers in the years since, but Paul heads into the series off perhaps the best game of his career.
With Harden the presumptive MVP two seasons after Curry’s second MVP season, the Rockets get the nod by a small margin. Thompson is an outstanding defensive player to match up with Harden and Curry played his way back to full strength after his regular-season knee sprain, but the Rockets guards have had a strong post-season. Harden and Paul have to be great for the Rockets to win, while Curry and Thompson can have off nights or take fewer shots and still have Kevin Durant to carry the Warriors’ offense. With the playmaking of Harden and Paul, the Rockets guards carry a greater load in one of the best match ups of the post-season.
When the Rockets seemed to have the edge on the Warriors through much of the regular season it might have been because of the strength of their bench. That seems to have changed dramatically since then, especially if Andre Iguodala, the Warriors sixth man the Rockets tried to sign as a free agent, returns to coming off the bench. Veterans Shaun Livingston and David West are playing better than when the Warriors faced the Rockets in the regular season. Curry’s injury pushed Quinn Cook into a role that has seemed to better prepare him for the post season. Nick Young was outstanding during the regular season against the Rockets, making 68.4 percent of his 3s. The Rockets bench has struggled, with Eric Gordon and Luc Mbah a Moute misfiring and Ryan Anderson out of the rotation entirely. As with Young, Gerald Green has seemed to play particularly well in the matchup. He had his top scoring game of the season, with 29 points, against the Warriors, and could be especially important. His 46.3 percent 3-point shooting against the Warriors in his career is his best against any opponent.
This should be the Rockets advantage and could be again. There is a sense that either Nene will have to be a factor or Anderson might have to reclaim a rotation spot in small lineups. For now, the bench has been off enough to give the nod to Golden State.
Both teams will come into the series healthy and well-rested, brimming with confidence. As much as has been made of how long it has been since they have met, since the Rockets’ Jan. 20 win, they have not met at full strength all season, with Iguodala out for the first and third games between the teams, Harden and Durant out for the second game, Ariza and Green suspended for the third meeting and Chris Paul limping through the opener. Far more pressure will be on the Rockets to start the series because they will open at home, but that has generally been good for them. Since the 1984 NBA expansion of the playoffs to 16 teams, the 10 meetings of the reigning champions against the team with that season’s best record have been split 5-5. The Warriors seem in no way worn down after three-consecutive seasons in The Finals, and seem reinvigorated by the post-season. The Rockets have only grown hungrier with each taste of success and reminder of their possibilities.
The Warriors have won two championships in three seasons. The Rockets have one championship, Ariza’s, on the entire roster.