Celebrate dad but keep an eye on the skies

Tropical system expected to dump as much as 4 inches of rain; odds of flooding are low

A tropical storm could bring 2 to 3 inches of rain and possibly cause street flooding in the Houston area starting on Father’s Day afternoon, officials with the Harris County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management warned.

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston called the odds of flooding low.

“We’re recommending that people keep their plans, enjoy Father’s Day,” said Francisco Sanchez, deputy emergency management coordinator for the Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management during a press conference Saturday. “This is not a time to panic, but it is a time to be informed and to be aware.”

NWS forecasters say a tropical wave moving northwest from the Yucatan Peninsula could bring 2 to 4 inches of rain by Monday along Interstate 10, which is expected to be hit the heaviest.

“The shower is going to be moving around pretty fast through the area,” NWS meteorologist Josh Lichter said.

Sanchez said his office was asking people to check the forecast Sunday through Tuesday and follow @ReadyHarris on Twitter for updates. He said transportation issues seem the most likely and that the office is working with river and lake authorities to see if there will be a need to respond.

“Because your part of town may not be having significant rainfall, a couple of miles down the road could be significantly different,” Sanchez warned. “Just be watchful.”

“Right now, all of our watersheds, in fact, are at or below normal flow levels because it has been dry over the last three to four weeks,” Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist Jeff Lindner said.

“We will be able to handle the rainfall as long as it all doesn’t fall at one time, and that is something that we’re going to have pay attention to as we move into Sunday night and Monday morning,” Lindner said.

The Addicks and Barker reservoirs “are currently empty and their floodgates are passing normal flows right now,” Lindner said. “The grounds are so dry right now that they’ll be able to absorb some of that.”

Furthermore, natural landmarks are expected to act as retainers against flooding.

“Lake Conroe is currently 5 inches below its normal full level, so we’ve got some room to capture flows,” said Jace Houston, general manager of the San Jacinto River Authority. “I wouldn’t expect to even have to release water from Lake Conroe if we only get 1 to 3 inches of rain.”

Some forecasters have said the storm is not too worrisome.

“The overall story remains the same: heavy rain potential increases on Sunday and Monday, with the biggest threat some localized high rainfall rates,” meteorologist Matt Lanza wrote Saturday morning on the SpaceCityWeather blog.

“As Houston floods go, this is not likely to be a memorable one.

“The bigger concern remains moisture, as the tropical system pumps it into the coast,” he continued. “However, over the last couple of days we’ve been downplaying the threat of flooding, and we continue to think that will be the case, as the greater amounts of moisture will likely be going into south Texas.”

The National Hurricane Center also has given the storm a 10 percent chance of developing through Wednesday.