Trump hovers over Culberson, Fletcher
Independents, moderate GOP voters galvanized by president could flip seat
Residents paint a complicated picture of President Donald Trump’s influence in the 7th Congressional District race between Republican incumbent Rep. John Culberson and Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, who are running neck and neck for a district once considered a Republican
stronghold.
While many conservatives in the district indicated it would take more than disdain for the president to flip their congressional vote, moderate Republicans and independents supporting Fletcher largely said they were catalyzed by Trump’s victory.
“I feel like the Republican Party needs a punch in the nose to wake up,” said Michael
Sternesky, 66, a registered Republican who lives in Spring Branch and is volunteering for Fletcher. “It was really the election in 2016. Trump was so outrageous, and I thought, ‘This is not the right way to go.’ ”
Barring a massive “blue wave,” Fletcher will need the support of Republicans like Sternesky, who quibbles with some of Culberson’s stances on health care but primarily switched teams over Trump. He identifies as fiscally conservative and socially progressive.
“I don’t see those kinds of people in the Republican Party anymore,” Sternesky said, adding that he likely would not have supported activist Laura Moser, Fletcher’s more liberal primary opponent, had she won instead.
In this closely watched race, Culberson and Fletcher both are convinced the district’s high levels of education and political engagement boost their chances in the age of Trump.
Culberson says “thoughtful” Republicans will make this election a referendum on his record, not the president. He outperformed Trump by 13 percentage points and 22,000 votes in 2016, when Hillary Clinton narrowly won the district.
Coalition of disillusioned
Fletcher, noticing the suburban district’s abundance of white, college-educated women and Trump’s vulnerability among that bloc, has sought to tie Culberson to the president. She anticipates a coalition of disillusioned Republicans and Democrats who typically skip midterm elections will send her to Washington.
Yet many Republicans had difficulty getting behind Fletcher, considering her a liberal Democrat despite positions that distance her from her party’s hardline progressive elements on health care and immigration.
Charles Volek, a retired Shell engineer who lives just outside Bellaire, called Trump “despicable” and said he “can’t stand the guy.” But as a Cruz supporter, the idea of voting for Fletcher is a nonstarter.
“First thing is, I’m prolife. And Lizzie is prodeath,” said Volek, 84. (Fletcher co-founded a Planned Parenthood group in Houston and is prochoice.)
It’s voters like Volek that make 21-year-old Culberson supporter Christopher Combs skeptical that Clinton’s narrow win in the district foreshadows a Fletcher victory.
“I think that Republican voters that rejected Trump, that’s not going to translate to a rejection of Culberson in this election,” said Combs, a University of Houston sophomore. “There are material, consequential matters that are above the presidency and that are important for conservative Houstonians. And I think they’re going to commit to Culberson.”
With days to go, the race is set for a tight finish, with public polls showing a virtual tie. Culberson and Fletcher are stumping with allies from Washington, including Reps. John Lewis, D-Ga.,
and Steve Scalise, R-La., and running furious grassroots operations. Since July 1, the two candidates and outside groups — who have inundated the district with ads — have spent more than $18 million on the race, Federal Election Commission records show.
“This election is the hardest race John has ever run,” Belinda Culberson, John’s wife, said at a women-focused rally last month.
‘I know who votes’
Culberson rarely faces serious opposition in the district he began representing in 2001 after 14 years in the Texas House. His toughest challenge came in 2008, when then-President George W. Bush had an approval rating below 30 percent on Election Day and Culberson’s Democratic opponent raised $3 million. Culberson won by more than 13 percentage points.
But that was a decade ago. Since then, the district has become far more diverse and experienced rapid suburban growth, trends that make it a prime target for Democrats. No congressional district outside Utah saw a bigger shift in the presidential vote from 2012 to 2016, with Clinton winning by 1.4 points, almost 23 points ahead of Mitt Romney’s margin.
“What people are seeing now is that Congress isn’t working, and Washington really isn’t working,” Fletcher said in a recent interview. “And Congress isn’t providing the check on the Trump administration that a lot of people had hoped. So I think you see a lot of the same people looking for new candidates.”
This year, Culberson again faces the headwinds of an unpopular president and an opponent who has far outraised him. Fletcher had raised $5.3 million through Oct. 17 and maintained about $733,000 cash on hand, compared to Culberson’s $3 million haul and $460,000 in cash.
Yet Culberson, who grew up in West University and has a near-encyclopedic knowledge of each precinct, has kept a close eye on the district’s changes. He contends that his deep connections to the district will help him survive the toughest reelection challenge of his congressional career and sees a possible edge in his campaign experience over Fletcher, who is seeking office for the first time.
“The district is well-educated, well-informed. They pay close attention,” Culberson said at his Memorial City campaign headquarters. “They know me. They know they can trust me.”
Texas’ 7th Congressional
District looks like a jagged Tetris piece, bordering Cypress at its northern point. It runs south through suburbs west of Addicks Reservoir, dipping down to cover Barker, then runs east through the Energy Corridor between Katy Freeway and Westheimer Road. From there, it takes in the diverse Gulfton neighborhood and upscale Galleria and River Oaks areas.
Culberson outperformed Trump by the widest margins in Bellaire, West University Place and Southside Place, areas made up overwhelmingly of wealthy, college-educated white people. In River Oaks, Afton Oaks and Meyerland, he also far outpaced Trump, in some precincts by 17 percentage points.
Culberson prefers to avoid talking about external factors in the race, including Trump, though he is fond of linking Fletcher to Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. On Oct. 22, he skipped the president’s Houston rally to attend a long-planned Memorial Super Neighborhood monthly council meeting.
As Trump told the rally crowd that people “with little boats” wanted to go into Hurricane Harvey’s path to “show their wife how great they are” — a baseless claim that Fletcher has criticized Culberson for not denouncing — Culberson discussed hurricane relief with residents.
“The election’s always about the candidate,” Culberson said. “There may be other atmospherics and things blowing around, but the fundamental question that the voter is answering is, ‘What do I think of that candidate?’ ”
Though Trump’s name will not appear on the ballot, this election may hinge partly on whether people vote like it is. Democrats in the 7th District showed enthusiasm during the primary, when turnout spiked five times compared to 2014. Yet they still fell about 5,000 ballots short of the Republicans in a race that was largely uncompetitive.
For her part, Fletcher has seen many people other than herself making their first foray into politics this cycle.
“There are new precinct chairs, there are new firsttime volunteers, there are new group organizers,” she said. “And I think that that speaks to something much larger happening in our community.”