Despite populism, voters care about bread-and-butter issues
If I were looking for advice on how to deal with right-wing populism, Hillary Clinton is not the first person I would ask.
Clinton, the Democratic party’s 2016 presidential nominee, has a long and impressive résumé. There is nothing in her background, however, that would suggest any particular insight on America’s working class, or an ability to build bridges with such voters. That was clear this week, thanks to Clinton’s diagnosis of how European leaders like Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, should “get a handle on migration.” Clinton made that comment in an interview with the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour about the rise of right-wing populism in the United States and Western Europe and how centrist politicians should respond to it.
She told Wintour that in her view, migration is the issue “that lit the flame” and that it has been skilfully exploited by politicians like Donald Trump, who defeated her in the presidential election in 2016.
In light of that, Clinton continued, perhaps it is time for leaders like Merkel to take a different course.
“I think it is fair to say Europe has done its part, and must send a very clear message — ‘We are not going to be able to continue provide refuge and support,’ ” she told Wintour.
Otherwise, Clinton continued, the issue would continue to “roil the body politic.”
Some Americans would agree with Clinton’s emphasis on political strategy here, and some would agree with her conclusion on the issue of migration itself.
I would suggest caution on both fronts. And I would suggest that centrists confronted with right-wing populism take a look at what happened in Texas in this year’s midterm elections and the relative sanity that has suffused state politics in the aftermath.
I have often felt over the past two years that the state accidentally staged a dress rehearsal for American politics in the era of Trump.
Texas became a red state in the 1990s and has remained red well into the 21st century, despite demographic and economic trends that must have seemed inauspicious for Republicans.
Much of the credit for that should go to Republican leaders like Rick Perry and David Dewhurst.
Sure, there were occasional prayer rallies during the years those two served as governor and lieutenant governor, respectively. Perry and Dewhurst, however, largely kept their focus on bread-and-butter issues such as jobs, roads and public schools.
Their successors, though, have allocated more time to pandering to the grassroots. Since Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick were elected in 2014, we have seen protracted debates in the Texas Legislature over things like “constitutional carry” and last year’s notorious “bathroom bill.”
The mentality that underlies such fights is reminiscent of the one Clinton is advocating in her comments about how European leaders should address the migration issue. And it is not one that ultimately serves anyone well.
If leaders see migration as a problem, they should say so, of course. They also should specify the nature of the problem a little more precisely so voters can evaluate their claims for themselves. Unchecked migration, for example, can be a security issue. Large-scale migration can have a suppressive effect on wages. If the evidence supports such arguments, there is no need for a politician to demagogue on an issue.
Demagoguing — on any issue — can work out well for a politician, over the short term. Trump’s overheated rhetoric on immigration helped propel him to the presidency.
It’s funny to think back on this now, but at the beginning of that election cycle, it widely was assumed that the party’s presidential nomination would go to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Obviously, that did not come to pass.
Neither did many of the predictions Trump’s supporters made, heading into the midterms.
Republicans could have campaigned on their achievements over the past two years: The national economy is humming along, unemployment has reached historic lows, Trump has appointed two conservative justices to the Supreme Court.
Instead, the president spent the final weeks of the election stoking fears about a caravan of migrants from Central America making its way through Mexico toward America’s southern border. As political calculations go, that did not pan out. Republicans picked up a couple of Senate seats, but they lost control of the House.
And Texas, the linchpin of the party’s electoral coalition, is a purple state now. Democrats did not win any statewide offices this time around, but four of their candidates came within 5 points of doing so. They also made inroads in the state Legislature and in pivotal counties like Harris and Fort Bend.
As a result, the state’s Republican leaders have taken a renewed interest in issues like school finance, workforce development and property tax reform.
There’s a lesson there for centrists: Even when right-wing populism is roiling the body politic, voters still care about bread-and-butter issues. And they appreciate leaders who do, too.