Which movies will win at the Golden Globes?
The Golden Globes provide the highest-profile pit stop on the way to the Academy Awards, and this year’s ceremony is perhaps the most advantageously timed edition yet: The day after NBC shows the Globes on Sunday, voting begins for the Oscar nominations. A win, then, will help contenders remain front of mind for academy members filling out their ballots on Monday, and there will be plenty of those winners to go around since the Globes spread the wealth by splitting their biggest races into separate categories for dramas and comedy/ musicals.
For as often as the Globes add their imprimatur to an already presumed Oscar frontrunner, this show can still have upsets. The Globes are voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a quirky group of about 90 journalists with only one academy member in its ranks. These individuals have their own tastes. Here, I try to think like one of the association’s voters to guess the outcome of the 14 film races.
Best Actress, Drama
Glenn Close, “The Wife”; Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”; Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”’; Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”; Rosamund Pike, “A Private War”
Close is a 15-time Globe nominee who’s won twice for television performances, and Lady Gaga won the only Globe she was nominated for before, thanks to her performance in the 2015 TV show “American Horror Story: Hotel.” Globes voters know that Lady Gaga would deliver a capital-M moment if she wins, and that will probably tip the scales in her favor.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”; Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”; Lucas Hedges, “Boy Erased”; Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”; John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”
I would put my chips on Cooper to prevail, with one caveat: Voters adored “Bohemian Rhapsody” and could push Malek to a surprise win here.
Best Motion Picture, Drama
“Black Panther”; “BlacKkKlansman”; “Bohemian Rhapsody”; “If Beale Street Could Talk”;“A Star Is Born”
Though Globes voters have made their fair share of wacky choices in the past, the group knows that recognizing “Bohemian Rhapsody” in this category would draw derision, especially since Bryan Singer, a magnet for controversy, was fired as director during production. “A Star Is Born,” then, should easily coast to victory.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”; Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”; Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”; Charlize Theron, “Tully”; Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians”
Blunt is coming off a banner year that includes starring in “A Quiet Place,” and though Globes voters virtually shut out that horror film, its superhit status only adds strength to Blunt’s bid for “Mary Poppins Returns.” Meanwhile, Colman’s turn as the addled queen in “The Favourite” has the most Oscar heat. Though Blunt would be a practically perfect Globe winner, the voters will probably go for Colman, so as to seem more prescient.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, “Vice”; LinManuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns”; Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”; Robert Redford, “The Old Man & the Gun”; John C. Reilly, “Stan & Ollie”
Adam McKay’s “Vice” picked up the most Globes nods of any movie, so there’s no reason to bet against Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney here. Only Mortensen could put up a fight, but there is an easier category to come for voters who want to recognize “Green Book.”
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
“Crazy Rich Asians”; “The Favourite”; “Green Book”; “Mary Poppins Returns”; “Vice”
Globes voters were clearly partial to “Vice,” but not long after the nominations were announced, the film’s review embargo broke and “Vice” got wildly mixed notices. Will that cool voters’ ardor? If so, the better-reviewed “The Favourite” is an easy pick.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, “Vice”; Claire Foy, “First Man”; Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”; Emma Stone, “The Favourite”; Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Though Adams has never won an Oscar, she’s taken home two Golden Globes, including one for the largely forgotten Tim Burton film “Big Eyes.” In a year when Adams may have her strongest shot at the Academy Award, I suspect Globe voters will be inclined to throw their weight behind her.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”; Timothée Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”; Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”; Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”; Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Two years ago, when Ali picked up nearly every trophy under the sun for “Moonlight,” the Globes proved to be the outlier: Instead, the group gave its supporting-actor trophy to “Nocturnal Animals” star Aaron Taylor-Johnson. This year should prove to be a make-good for Ali, considered the Oscar front-runner for what is practically a co-lead in “Green Book.”
Best Director, Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”; Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”; Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”; Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”; Adam McKay, “Vice”
Netflix hopes that “Roma” will be the streamer’s first nominee for best picture at the Oscars, but since it’s a foreignlanguage film, it wasn’t eligible for best drama at the Globes, according to HFPA rules. Still, the film was allowed to compete in most other categories, and though its lead, Yalitza Aparicio, didn’t make it into the best-actress race, Cuarón still has so much industry heat that he could trump the first-time filmmaker Cooper.