Give peace a chance
Tanker attacks shouldn’t lead to war with Iran.
Given the woefully erroneous “weapons of mass destruction” allegation that led to the Iraq war, Americans are right to step back and take a deep breath rather than react rashly to apparent evidence that Iran orchestrated attacks on six oil tankers in the Middle East.
Two oil tankers in the Gulf of
Oman were crippled by explosions Thursday, forcing both crews to abandon ship. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran, a claim backed up by U.S. military surveillance video purportedly showing the Iranian crew of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard patrol boat removing an unexploded limpet mine from one of the stricken tankers so it could not be used as evidence.
Four oil tankers were similarly attacked in May in the Persian Gulf, fueling initial suspicions that Iran was carrying out a plan to disrupt the world’s crude oil supply. It wouldn’t be the first time. The Iran-Iraq tanker war during the 1980s dragged on for years, with deadly consequences for this country when 37 crew members of the USS Stark were killed. The frigate was hit by missiles fired by an Iraqi pilot who said he mistakenly thought he was firing at an Iranian tanker.
Today, disruption in global oil markets wouldn’t so much hurt the United States, which has doubled its domestic production in recent years, as it would Iran’s regional enemies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, whose oil tankers travel through the Strait of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration has portrayed the attacks as retaliation for the U.S. withdrawal a year ago from the Obama-era nuclear agreement with Iran. Renewed sanctions have hurt Iran’s economy, though their effectiveness has been questioned. Meanwhile staunch U.S. allies Britain, Germany and France have cited monitors’ reports that Iran has followed the rules in urging the United States to re-enter the treaty.
The oil tanker explosions have made that even more unlikely. The administration responded to the four attacks in May by sending the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its accompanying contingent of Navy destroyers, cruisers, and planes to the region. “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran,” President Trump tweeted. “Never threaten the United States again.”
The saber-rattling wasn’t as loud Thursday. Pompeo instead said the administration wants to “bring Iran back to the negotiating table at the appropriate time.”
That’s probably not the advice that national security adviser John Bolton has been whispering in Trump’s ear. Bolton’s penchant for regime change is legendary, but he seems to have fallen into disfavor at the White House ever since his machinations to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro failed miserably.
The rebellion Bolton felt sure would replace Maduro with U.S.backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó never materialized, leading
Trump to criticize his adviser. “If it was up to John, we’d be in four wars now,” a senior administration official quoted Trump as saying in a meeting.
The administration took its allegation that Iran attacked the oil tankers to the U.N. Security Council, which may be another indication that Bolton’s star is dimming. The former
U.S. ambassador to the United Nations has always been a harsh critic of the world body. To his point though, the Security Council denounced the tanker allegation as “inflammatory” and part of another “Iranophobic” disinformation campaign by the United States.
That unsatisfying response doesn’t mean war is preferable to diplomacy. It means success is rarely achieved as quickly as you want it to be. Rapprochement with Iran will take time, and patience.
Consider what happened Wednesday when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tried to deliver a note from Trump to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “I do not see Trump as worthy of any message exchange, and I do not have any reply for him, now or in the future,” said Khamenei.
Now, Khamenei may be a cleric but he’s also a politician, so his reaction was likely calibrated to appease the Iranian public. Nonetheless, his refusal to even read the note from Trump was disappointing. In Great Britain a week ago, Trump told reporters he would like to talk with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. “I’d much rather talk,” he said. “The only thing is, we can’t let them have nuclear weapons.”
America’s European allies want the United States to rejoin the effort to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. That goal has become even more elusive with the despicable attacks on oil tankers in gulf waters, but it’s still possible. Khamenei’s refusal to read Trump’s note doesn’t mean the president has to give up on diplomacy. It might mean he needs to find the right intermediary to help him make a deal.
Americans don’t want to be drawn into another war that could have been avoided. The president needs to find a way to make sure that doesn’t happen.