Apple’s ‘Osborne Effect’?
Announcement of bigger, better option may hurt other sales
Announcement of new MacBook Pro could hurt sale of older model.
In the Paleolithic era of computing, Osborne Computer Corp. had a hit on its hands with what was the first portable microcomputer.
The Osborne 1, released in 1981, looked like a suitcase with tiny 5-inch screen on the side. It was hugely influential, and other portable computers, such as the Kaypro and later the original Compaq “luggable”, borrowed from this design.
But one reason you can’t buy Osborne computers today is because the company shot itself in the head. Shortly after the Osborne 1 came out, the company began telling its dealers that newer, faster versions were on the way. Those dealers canceled their Osborne 1 orders, which dried up revenue for the business, which then declared bankruptcy less than two years after it launched.
Ever since, the phenomenon of a tech company hurting its sales by pre-announcing new products has been known as the Osborne Effect. And we may have seen an example of that last week with Apple’s announcement of a new MacBook Pro laptop with a 16-inch display. It’s a redesign of the company’s 15-inch portable, which adds screen real estate by shrinking the bezels around it. It starts at a solid $2,399.
But by introducing this machine now, Apple may end up suppressing sales of its smaller, 13-inch MacBook Pros. That’s because the 16-inch model fixes a big problem with the current design of the entire Pro line of laptops — a keyboard that has responsiveness issues when dust or debris gets under the keys. Apple has had to offer a special repair program just for users whose MacBooks, MacBook Airs and MacBook Pros suddenly have keys that don’t work, or reppppppeat themselves.
Most computer keyboards use a mechanism that looks like a pair of scissors — press on them and the mechanism flattens to make the contact that activates the key. With the Apple keyboard that first started appearing in 2015, Apple used a design similar to the wings of a butterfly. It has tweaked this design two times since, but some users still have issues with it.
The new 16-inch MacBook Pro returns to the scissors mechanism, very similar to that used on the popular keyboard used for its iMacs. And although Apple has not explicitly said so, it is expected that a refresh of the 13inch MacBook Pros will move to this new-old design. In an interview with CNet, Apple marketing chief Phil Schiller said, “We are continuing with both keyboard designs.” When asked about whether the new keyboard was considered a “pro-tier” feature, he said:
“Some of the most passionate feedback about the keyboard was coming from Pro customers,” Schiller said. “We thought that was the right place to do the work on the new Magic Keyboard.”
Those two statements imply that the scissors-style keyboard will end up on other MacBook Pros, and a new report indicates it may be coming next year. If that’s the case, and if the current keyboard still has issues, why in the world would anyone who’s paying attention buy a current, 13-inch MacBook Pro? Apple typically refreshes its Macs in the spring, so if redesigned 13inch models are coming, it won’t be long.
The Mac hasn’t been Apple’s primary revenue driver for a long time, and given that its iPhone 11 line is doing better than expected and its stock has risen 65 percent this year, Apple has some leeway. But you can bet that when the revamped 13-inch models with the scissor keyboard hit the market Apple will make up for lost time.
This story originally appeared in Dwight Silverman’s Release Notes newsletter.
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