This summer, coexisting safely with virus is a Texas paradox
SAN ANTONIO — The Texas heat already was oppressive well before noon on Wednesday when David Burshe arrived at Rockin’ R River Rides in New Braunfels to float the Guadalupe River.
A critical care radiologist at Methodist Healthcare System in San Antonio, Burshe had seen his share of COVID-19 patients in recent weeks, he said. But he had had his fill of staying home to slow the spread of the virus, at least for now.
“I was behind the initial lockdown for the purposes of not getting our ICUs overwhelmed,” Burshe, 40, said. “I was there at the peak. And they were coming in every day. But we never even got close to being overwhelmed. My worry is that if and when a true wave comes, a wave that is overwhelming the systems, we will have exhausted our patience for social distancing.”
With the novel coronavirus still spreading, relaxing social distancing now could prove catastrophic, experts say. Gov. Greg Abbott has pushed ahead with a phased reopening of the hobbled economy that will allow for some familiar summer pleasures, even as it exposes more Texans to the potentially deadly virus.
Abbott’s most recent order opened beaches, rivers and lakes. Swimming pools and bars are allowed to operate at 25 percent capacity, along with other public spaces, including zoos, museums and bowling alleys. And restaurants are now open at 50 percent capacity. Overnight youth camps are allowed to begin operating next week.
“Our goal is to find ways to coexist with COVID-19 as safely as possible,” Abbott said last week. “That includes continuing the safe practices that you’ve already adopted: maintaining safe distances, wearing a mask, sanitizing your hands.”
While amusement parks and water parks were to remain closed for now, at least one Houston-area water park, Big Rivers Waterpark in New Caney, reopened Saturday in defiance of Abbott’s orders, drawing a crowd of at least 1,300.
This amounts to a Texas-size paradox, experts say. Given the infectiousness of the virus, keeping a “safe distance” at many summer haunts is difficult, even with health protocols in place.
“I think that the key thing, and
I’m not sure how anybody is going to do this, is to restrict your interaction, your personal interaction between different groups,” said Dr. Vince Fonseca, a former Texas state chief epidemiologist.
Fonseca was skeptical this could be achieved floating on a river, let alone in bars, museums or summer camps.
Still, experts say outdoor activities are much safer than anything inside, provided you keep your distance from others. Recent studies have shown that warmer temperatures and increased humidity may reduce transmission of the highly contagious virus, although changes in weather alone are not enough to contain COVID-19.
With a vaccine still months or years away, social distancing can buy time. Even with a possible lull in infections this summer, experts say it’s critical to prepare for an expected spike in the fall by building a public health system robust enough to test, trace and isolate anyone infected with the virus.
As carloads of other tubers arrived in the scorching lot at the banks of the river, Burshe said he wasn’t concerned about exposure to the virus. He had come to float with his sister, Amelia, and her boyfriend, Frederick Schlick, both freelance opera singers who had fled New York City in March.
Compared to the “dense cesspool” of New York City, Schlick said, Texas is a different universe.
“People are going about their lives,” he said. “And the biggest thing, in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, every single person has a mask on. You don’t have masks. We went to Buccee’s — no one had a mask on. In Texas, it’s just kind of like, ‘Live free, do your own thing.’ ”
‘Like going 56 in a 55’
As general manager of Rockin R’ River Rides, Shane Wolf has adopted every health protocol required for river outfitters by the governor’s “strike force” to open Texas — disinfecting his shuttle buses between every ride, for instance.
And as board president of the Water Oriented Recreation District of Comal County, which is charged with maintaining health and safety on the river, Wolf has made sure the dozens of other outfitters know the rules, too.
Whether all are abiding by them is a different story.
“Who’s going to enforce anything?” Wolf said. “It’s all recommendations.”
Abbott’s team also released rules for people who visit parks, beaches or other bodies of water, stipulating that any group “may not exceed” the greater of a person’s household or up to five people who arrive together.
Law enforcement officers “are out here, they’re looking at it, but it’s kind of like going 56 in a 55,” Wolf said. “I have them working on the weekends here, just so when people drive up they see that. And that has always helped in a variety of ways, whether it’s alcohol or rowdy behavior — or now COVID-19.”
Abbott’s team has also released detailed rules for overnight youth camps that would seem to alter the communal experience of summer camp in fundamental ways.
For instance, Abbott recommends that camps “separate campers and staff into groups or cohorts that remain consistent over the camp session” and “discourage mixing between groups or cohorts.”
Summer may slow the spread
Evidence is emerging that changes in weather can inhibit transmission of the virus.
A working paper and database released by Harvard University suggests that the reproductive number of the virus — the average number of people who could be infected by someone with the virus — is diminished as temperature and humidity increase.
“Our projections suggest warmer times of the year, and locations, may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number, helping with efforts to contain the pandemic and build response capacity,” the researchers said.
Humidity can help in at least two ways: It makes respiratory particles heavier so they fall to the ground, and it improves our ability to move things out of our respiratory system, Perkins said. But weather is only one factor in how the virus can spread.
“It’s absolutely not enough,” said Dr. Jimmy Perkins, former dean of the UT School of Public Health. “The two wild cards for the future are behavior and weather. And if we behave like poor people who have to live in crowded spaces, like in Guayaquil, Ecuador or Brazil, it’s not going to be very effective. Because there are raging epidemics in those countries, and those are very hot, humid countries.”