June will test our COVID-19 response
June could be the most consequential month of our lifetimes as we witness whether the economy’s reopening leads to a deadly second wave of COVID-19 or limited normalcy.
Conservative and liberal demagogues have sadly turned the coronavirus pandemic into a culture war. While 73 percent of Democrats are worried about catching the disease, only 36 of Republicans consider it a substantial risk, according to polling by Gallup.
The virus is nonpartisan, though, and its behavior will shape not only the economic recovery but also the fall election.
Shaming people for going out or not wearing masks is a favorite quarantine pastime for many Democrats. They are horrified by crowded restaurants and young people splashing in pools. How can anyone be so irresponsible they ask, with a tsk-tsk?
“We may well be in the eye of the hurricane. There’s still no cure, no vaccine,” Harris County Judge Lena Hidalgo warned.
Bexar County Republican Party Chairwoman Cynthia Brehm, meanwhile, declared, “All of this has been promulgated by the Democrats to undo all of the good that President Trump has done for our country.
“So, take off your masks, exercise your constitutional rights. Stand up, speak up, and vote Republican.”
Balancing public health with personal freedom is a long-standing challenge. Conservative Texas lawmakers still oppose a smoking ban in bars and restaurants, decades after most cities imposed them.
Proving the bans reduced lung cancer took decades, but we will see the consequences of reopening the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic in a few weeks.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, who as a White House health adviser has become a divisive figure, warns that new waves of COVID-19 infections are coming. Our behavior will determine the death toll.
Expert advice is evolving as we learn more about the new coronavirus. The disease only emerged in November, so we do not know how it will behave this summer. The more we understand it, though, the more precise we can be in changing behavior.
For example, we know the virus spreads quickly at large gatherings, such as church services and sporting events. We know people crowded into small spaces with poor air circulation will create a hot spot. The best advice is to limit your social circle, stay home and keep clean.
Texas, though, has chosen not to follow the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reopening guidelines strictly. Right wing activists pressured Gov. Greg Abbott to overrule local authorities and lift public health orders. Liberals are expecting infection rates to spike while Republicans are planning Fourth of July barbecues.
If the infection rate does not climb in June, some conservatives will try to make Fauci and the liberals to be fools. That will be both incorrect and unfortunate because every little bit helps to fight the disease.
Perhaps most disturbingly, if COVID-19 recedes, Americans may reject Fauci’s warning about a fall pandemic alongside the seasonal influenza. Letting our guard down in October would be a fatal mistake.
On the other hand, if the virus spreads in June as epidemiologists expect, Trump and Abbott will face a horrible dilemma: Issue new stay-at-home orders or accept the death toll as the price of doing business?
I’ve been reading about 19th century Texas recently, particularly the Alamo. Malaria, yellow fever, typhoid, tuberculosis and venereal diseases were widespread. Dying from old age was once considered remarkable, not the norm.
Col. William Barrett Travis, the Alamo commander who wrote the famous “victory or death” letter, also kept a diary about his syphilis treatments and brothel visits. Past generations of Texans staged rebellions while infectious diseases were endemic.
Another stay-at-home order would undoubtedly shatter growing consumer confidence, send struggling businesses into the abyss, and leave tens of thousands without jobs. If there is another wave, political leaders of all stripes will resist shuttering again.
Who gets sick and dies will also play into political calculations. So far, COVID-19 has hit Democratic city-dwellers, particularly minority essential workers, especially hard. White Republicans living in suburban and rural areas, where crowds are not a normal part of life, have largely escaped.
I’ve tried to warn readers of the potential economic and health consequences of COVID-19 so they can prepare for the worst-case scenario. But I still hold out hope that in my July 1 column, I can breathe a sigh of relief.
Unlike other hard-hit communities, Texas and the United States have chosen a middle path, imposing minimal restrictions to slow the virus while allowing substantial personal liberty. That freedom, though, comes with the responsibility to behave wisely to crush the virus.
June will test whether Americans are up to the task.