CAMP HORIZON
Despite four AFC South titles in five years, the Texans are not regarded as favorites to repeat by many veteran NFL observers
Team deserves more respect from pundits, but there are questions
For a team that won the AFC South for the fourth time in five years and reached the divisional round of the playoffs, the Texans aren’t getting a lot of respect as they approach the start of Bill O’Brien’s seventh training camp. Even though the Texans have compiled winning records in five of O’Brien’s six seasons and have quarterback Deshaun Watson entering his fourth season, they’re being picked second or third in the division behind Tennessee and Indianapolis by a lot of veteran NFL followers.
Everyone regards Watson as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, but it’s as if they’re trying hard to pick anybody but the Texans to win the AFC South.
That’s the way it was in 2019, too, when the Texans were coming off an 11-5 record and a wild card playoff loss to the Colts at home. The consensus was Indianapolis would win the division last season, but those forecasts were derailed when quarterback Andrew Luck retired in preseason.
This season, I’ve seen the Texans picked as high as 15 and as low as 23 in rankings going into training camp. One well-respected sports website has the Texans behind nine teams that had worse records in 2019.
Why so little love for a team that’s combined for a 21-11 regular season record the last two years? Let’s look at some of the reasons. Many can’t get over the way the Texans’ season ended. After rallying from a 16-0 deficit to defeat Buffalo in a wild card game that featured overtime magnificence by Watson, the Texans led 24-0 at Kansas City in the next round.
The Texans’ cratered in monumental fashion, committing one grievous blunder after another that helped the Chiefs score six consecutive touchdowns and win 51-31.
The criticism of O’Brien was still at a fever pitch until March when he traded receiver DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona, creating another firestorm that caused him to get roasted around the league.
The meltdown at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Texans are scheduled to begin the season in a Sept. 10 nationally televised Thursday night game, was almost forgotten after the controversial Hopkins trade. The Texans got running back David Johnson, a second-round draft choice they used on defensive tackle Ross Blacklock and a 2021 fourth-round pick.
Most of those picking the Texans to take a step back this season use O’Brien, the Kansas City collapse
and the Hopkins trade as the primary reasons they have so little respect for the team this season.
If the Texans fail to make the playoffs in an expanded format that includes an additional wild card team in each conference, more than likely it’ll be because of injuries, the first half of their schedule or both.
I continue to believe as long as Watson is healthy, the Texans are capable of beating anybody anywhere. I’m not saying they’re going to shock the Chiefs in the first game, but I believe they’re capable of winning as they did 31-24 at Kansas City last season.
O’Brien is counting heavily on four receivers who’ve had injury issues within the last two seasons. They’re vital to what offensive coordinator Tim Kelly wants to accomplish in his first season calling plays.
Will Fuller (almost six full games), Kenny Stills (three), Brandin Cooks (two) and Randall Cobb (one) combined to miss almost 12 games in 2019. Cobb missed seven in 2018.
Johnson, expected to be the starting back and rotate with Duke Johnson, missed three in his last season with the Cardinals.
If Fuller, Stills, Cooks, Cobb and David Johnson are able to stay relatively healthy or not get injured at the same time, Watson should have his most productive season and surpass 30 touchdown passes for the first time.
Now, let’s look at what should be a brutal stretch in six of their first seven games.
The first four games — at Kansas City, Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and Minnesota — are against teams that were a combined 44-20 last season. That’s the toughest first four games in the NFL.
The Texans don’t play a team
that had a losing record until Oct. 11 when they host Jacksonville. Before Nov. 15, they don’t play another team other than the Jaguars who had a losing record.
Think about that. The first team the Texans play other than the Jaguars that had a losing record in 2019 is at Cleveland on Nov. 15.
After that first Jacksonville game, the Texans visit Tennessee and play Green Bay at NRG Stadium. Their first seven games are against teams that finished 72-40.
In other words, expect the Texans to get off to a slow start. Fans and media will howl for O’Brien’s job as they usually do.
If the Texans have a losing record after their first seven games — 3-4 or even 2-5 — their season shouldn’t be written off. Over their last nine games, they play two teams — New England and Tennessee at NRG Stadium — that had winning records last season.
If they’re in contention to win the AFC South for the fifth time in six years entering the last two games, they play Cincinnati and Tennessee at NRG Stadium.
At this point when we’re waiting for the conditioning part of training camp to start, I believe the Texans will start slow, finish fast and compete with Tennessee for the division title.
Here’s something to consider about the Titans. After their incredible playoff performance in 2019 when they won at Baltimore and New England before losing the AFC Championship Game at Kansas City, third-year coach Mike Vrabel is under pressure to help them win the AFC South for the first time since 2008. That’s also the last season Tennessee had a record better than 9-7.