SAFE TO GO BACK?
As the Astros return to full capacity, experts remind it’s not a riskfree environment.
Tens of thousands of orange and blue jerseys mingled to create a vibrant mosaic at Minute Maid Park for this week’s Astros-Dodgers series, as America’s pastime slowly paints over a global health crisis.
The series marked Minute Maid Park’s return to 100 percent capacity, and the resulting crowds (34,443 on Tuesday and 30,939 on Wednesday) were the largest at the ballpark since the 2019 World Series.
Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw dueled on the mound. Astros fans jeered Joe Kelly and Albert Pujols. Dodgers fans heckled to their hearts’ content while Houston’s 2017 World Series banner loomed over the outfield.
“You walk in, and 2020 was such a terrible year all year round, and then it just had this sense of normal,” Astros fan Adam Cox said. “Everything felt OK when you walked in.”
Sanitizing stations and the occasional face mask were among the only stark reminders of the past year and a half. Otherwise, the cacophony of sights and sounds represented a first step toward prepandemic normalcy in a not quite post-pandemic world.
The Astros are the first Houston professional sports franchise to return to maximum capacity, and among the first MLB teams to do so.
The Dynamo, Houston’s MLS club, aims to be at full capacity at BBVA Stadium on July 3, which also likely would increase capacity for the NWSL’s Dash.
The Texans are one of 30 NFL teams cleared to be at full capacity for the upcoming season. Some NBA teams are returning to max capacity for playoff games, and the Rockets expect to follow suit when they restart this fall. So do many college football programs nationwide, including Houston, Texas A&M and Texas.
Even as newly reported COVID-19 cases in Harris County continue to drop and 44.9 percent of the population has received at least one vaccination shot, county and city officials still identify the threat level as “significant” and are urging people to avoid all contact unless fully vaccinated.
So how safe do fans feel returning to packed stadiums, and do health experts believe there is still reason for concern?
The CDC’s new guidance advises even vaccinated people to continue wearing masks in crowded indoor conditions. The Astros do not require masks for fully vaccinated fans and only “encourage” unvaccinated fans to wear them.
Many factors determine each person’s health and safety at a sporting event, said Dr. Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease epidemiologist with UTHealth School of Public Health.
How many people are in attendance, whether the game is indoors or outdoors, the length of the event, the likelihood of people shouting, and lowered inhibitions because of alcohol consumption all can raise the risk of infection, she said.
“It’s not a risk-free environment,” Troisi said. “You have to think about what your health conditions are. Are you fully vaccinated, at least two weeks after the second dose or one dose of Johnson & Johnson? Do you have underlying health conditions that, were you to get infected, would have an increased probability of bad outcome?
“Do you live with someone who’s not vaccinated (everybody under age 12) or has an underlying health condition or advanced age? Then you also have to take into account your level of risk tolerance. Some of us don’t want to take risks, not just about COVID but about anything.
Still, vaccinated people are generally less at risk of contracting and spreading the virus.
“People who are vaccinated, not only are they 94 percent less likely to have COVID symptoms, but they’re 94 percent less likely to have any virus on them,” said Dr. Vivian Ho, a health economist at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “The overwhelming majority don’t contract it and transmit it.”
Many fans at Minute Maid Park who identified themselves as fully vaccinated ditched masks altogether.
Others still wore masks while walking among crowds in the concourse but shed their face coverings once in their seats, happy to enjoy the game as they’re used to doing.
Astros fans Frank and Magdalene Salinas, who said they were fully vaccinated, did not wear masks but said they were trying to be mindful of social distancing. For them, vaccination was protection enough to attend their first game of the season.
“It’s just time,” Frank Salinas said. “It’s time to come out. You can sit at home and watch them, but there’s nothing like being here at the park and having interaction with other fans and stuff. It’s just like a big family. That’s why we like coming.”
Because proof of vaccination is not required to attend Astros games, similar to other sporting events and the majority of local businesses, the honor system is at play.
Houstonian Edwin Adams, a 71year-old Dodgers fan, attended the series opener as a birthday gift from his son Quincy.
Both men said they were fully vaccinated and would not have attended otherwise. The elder Adams said that while he was mildly apprehensive when he realized the stadium would be open to full capacity, he planned to wear his mask anytime he left his seat as extra protection.
“There should be a moral center in each one of us,” he said, “and sometimes it’s demonstrated, and all too often it’s not.”
Data from a recent nationwide survey conducted by The Conversation showed that people who are vaccinated are more likely to keep wearing a mask (81 percent of fully vaccinated respondents and 91 percent of partly vaccinated respondents) than people who do not plan to get vaccinated (74 percent of respondents).
“I think we all understand there’s overlap between people who don’t want to get vaccinated and people who don’t want to wear masks, so that sets up a bad situation,” Troisi said.
Astros fan Chris Gadoury took that into account when deciding to attend Tuesday’s game with his 7year-old son Ben. Because Ben is too young to be vaccinated, he and Chris wore masks at all times when not eating or drinking.
Gadoury said he would have preferred Texas to reopen more gradually and local governments to still enforce mask requirements. Until most people are vaccinated, he will continue to be cautious in public spaces — particularly for his son’s sake.
“One of the reasons we came here tonight was to see the Astros play the Dodgers but, again, it’s weighing the risks,” Gadoury said. “You hope that the people who aren’t wearing masks are vaccinated and that they’re not just not following the rules, endangering those who have not been vaccinated such as kids that are less than 12 years old.”
To alleviate those concerns, some sports teams including the NBA’s Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers have created dedicated vaccinated sections at games, where fans who show proof of vaccination are seated closer together than those without. Ho believes that approach could help put hesitant fans at ease.
“A lot of the studies that are showing a lot of increased economic activity, the spending is going on by people who aren’t vaccinated, who are not afraid, and people who are vaccinated are still extremely cautious,” she said. “I talk to lots of people who are fully vaccinated and still afraid to sit and eat inside at restaurants. If you give them the opportunity to go somewhere where they feel safe, they’ll be more willing to spend money at a game.”
Troisi agreed, though she cautioned that the proliferation of fake vaccination cards means the approach isn’t 100 percent foolproof. No Houston teams have announced intentions to implement vaccinated sections, and Troisi doesn’t believe they will.
“I also think politically it’s not gonna fly in Texas,” she said.
The Astros will continue to make sections of socially distanced seating available by request at Minute Maid Park until June 15. The organization is not taking contact tracing measures with either ballpark employees or fans, though Ho and Troisi said trying to track the movements of so many people would be futile.
This week, the number of Texans hospitalized for COVID-19 hit its lowest mark in nearly a year. Statewide, 47.2 percent of the population has received at least one vaccine shot.
As long as cases continue to steadily decline and the vaccination rate increases, Ho said Houstonians should generally feel comfortable attending large sporting events. Consider your personal risk factors when deciding whether or not to wear a mask, she added, and above all, use common sense.
“If a person next to you is coughing, you should get up and move,” Ho said. “Your greatest concern (is) the people sitting closer to you . ... Going to buy a hot dog is not dangerous. Even going to the bathroom, unless you’re standing in a long line, is not dangerous. We’re lucky that a lot of people in Houston have done the right thing for so long, which puts us in a good position to enjoy ourselves.”
Astros fans didn’t hold back this week. They offered full-throated boos for the Dodgers lineup, reserving their loudest objections for sworn nemesis Pujols. The two fan bases warred back and forth with chants; a fist fight even broke out along the third base line Wednesday.
Fans collectively held their breath during tense moments, such as when Astros relievers repeatedly loaded the bases in Tuesday’s 9-2 loss.
On Wednesday, the ballpark felt ready to explode when Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa took Trevor Bauer deep to the Crawford Boxes. It erupted when Bryan Abreu struck out Pujols to clinch a 5-2 victory for the Astros.
“It’s very meaningful. People love this team,” Astros manager Dusty Baker said of the crowd’s passion. “The pandemic isn’t over with. I do urge people to use a mask when possible. I noticed when we played Texas (in Arlington) there weren’t many masks in the stands, so you’d hate to have this pandemic multiply again because people aren’t being safe. We’re not out of the woods yet, but we’re on the way.”
It was quite the first-time experience at Minute Maid Park for longtime Astros fan Katherine McFadden. Raised in Sacramento, she fell in love with Nolan Ryan, Jose Cruz and the Astros teams of the 1980s. She attended Astros games when the team played in California, but she mainly loved the Astros from afar — until Tuesday.
This week, McFadden flew out to Houston with her 14-year-old son. She was vaccinated and he was not, but the pair planned to get tested once back in California. The trip was technically her son’s eighth-grade valedictorian present, but McFadden couldn’t help the chills that shot through her body when she walked into the ballpark.
McFadden wove her way through throngs of people on the concourse. The air smelled like popcorn and hot dogs. The stadium hummed. It felt alive. So did she.
As the national anthem played, McFadden reached over and squeezed her son’s hand..
“Wos,” she whispered. “We’re finally here.”