PLENTY OF OPTIONS
If team falls out of NBA draft lottery top four, its first pick would be at No. 18.
If nothing else, when the Rockets return to the lottery June 22 among the three teams with the best lottery odds and with the results of that evening’s bounce of pingpong balls potentially far more crucial for them than any team, they will know that they saved most of their allotment of good fortune.
The Rockets did not spend almost any good luck on the season that will put them on that stage, or this season’s virtual version of the lottery spotlight. Even the drawings that broke the ties and dropped the Portland Trail Blazers’ pick the Rockets hold to 23rd did not use any of the good luck they will need in a little more than three weeks.
The Rockets have had good fortune under similar circumstances before. When counting on a coin flip to win the right to draft Ralph Sampson, former owner Charlie Thomas, president Ray Patterson and media relations director Jim Foley dipped silver dollars into glasses of Irish whiskey at a New York saloon and then borrowed the bar’s wall clock for good luck the next day.
After that worked, with two bounces of the coin in commissioner Larry O’Brien’s office ending with heads the winner and Steve Stipanovich the consolation price, the group followed the same routine a year later, from the whiskey to the clock, and won again, earning the right to draft Hakeem Olajuwon.
When the Rockets won the lottery in 2002, with Steve Francis and his lavender suit coming away with the right to draft Yao Ming (and the Bulls getting Jay Williams with the second pick) the Rockets were so fortunate their numbers came up twice, forcing another lottery spin of pingpong balls to determine the team with the second pick.
Even those drafts, however, might not be as vital to the team’s fortunes as next month’s, and not only because two of those teams already had Sampson and Francis.
If the Rockets do not land a pick in the top four, with just a 52.1 percent chance of that, the Oklahoma City Thunder would have the right to swap the Miami Heat pick for the Rockets’ selection. After finishing the season with the NBA’s worst record, the Rockets could fall from the fifth pick to the 18th because of the first of the pick swaps they sent to the Thunder along with Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook.
In a draft considered unusually strong with players worthy of a top four pick, that kind of fall would feel devastating. That would be especially true for a team that has not picked in the first round since 2015 (Sam Dekker) and that has watched young franchise stars Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Zion Williamson and Anthony Edwards land with Western Conference teams in the previous three drafts.
With any sort of win, enough to remain in the top four, the Rockets would have reason to celebrate after a season that rarely brought such occasions. Fall and they will be choosing from a very different pool of players.
Though the draft order at this stage is wildly unpredictable, especially later in the first round, that leads to a look at players with potential to be in the three groups that could find the Rockets’ selection; five in the top of the draft, five from the Miami Heat post-lottery picks and five with the 23rd and 24th picks the Rockets hold from the Bucks and Trail Blazers.
The first five
Cade Cunningham, F, Oklahoma State: Cunningham is not just the most complete prospect of the draft; he is as well rounded as any player for many years while still having star potential. That not only will almost certainly make him the first player taken regardless of who lands the top pick (the Rockets have a 14 percent of picking first), his combination of size at 6foot-8, playmaking and scoring ability inside, in the mid-range and from the 3point line would make him an easy fit no matter how the Rockets’ roster develops.
Jalen Green, SG, G League Ignite: Arguably the most explosive player in the draft, Green could go second, third or fourth, depending on how teams view his star potential. He had that kind of talent, not just athletically but as a potential elite scorer.
Evan Mobley, C, USC: Mobley offers great length and mobility and could become an ideal modern big man. He does need to fill out a lanky frame and will need time, as to be expected for teenagers taken at the top of the draft. That description could sound similar to Christian Wood, but the Rockets would likely take the prospect they like most and worry about need and fit later.
Jalen Suggs, G, Gonzaga: Suggs could be a polished, well-rounded prospect, expected to excel on both ends of the floor. That does not mean he does not have top-of-draft upside, with ability to excel as a scorer, playmaker and defender.
Jonathan Kuminga, F, G League Elite: Though Kuminga seems increasingly likely to be fifth among the top five players ahead of the pack, he also has upside that would not make him out of place going a few picks sooner. An athletic wing, Kuminga was a top prospect before he exceled in the G League bubble.
The Miami middle
Moses Moody, SG, Arkansas: As long as the Rockets will be evaluating teenagers if they can stay in the top four, they can look at an 18-year-old in case they fall to the Miami pick and he falls to 18. Moody seems to fit Rafael Stone’s taste for versatile defenders with 3and-D skills. Some predict a climb into the lottery or even top 10 but for now, he appears a mid-first rounder.
James Bouknight, SG, Connecticut: Another player with potential to climb in the pre-draft process, Bouknight could also make the fall to the Miami pick less damaging than it would feel on lottery night. Bouknight has some sensational offensive stretches and could be effective on or off the ball.
Ziaire Williams, SF, Stanford: If the Rockets do fall, it might be wise to bet on upside, especially with three first-round picks. Williams, who went into the season expected to be a certain lottery pick, has that kind of potential.
Kai Jones, PF, Texas: Jones will also need time to develop but would have outstanding size and potential for a player with a chance to be on the board at 18.
Cameron Thomas, SG, LSU: Among the top scorers in the draft, Thomas’ skills and offensive feel should translate quickly. He was less efficient than teams might prefer but that could because of his role and he could overcome those sorts of questions in workouts.
The Blazers/Bucks back-to-back picks
Sharife Cooper, PG, Auburn: Daryl Morey’s first first-round pick as GM was undersized point guard Aaron Brooks. Stone’s first first round could bring another. Cooper’s playmaking and ballhandling makes up for a lack of size, particularly with Cooper’s vision.
Jared Butler, PG/SG, Baylor: A different sort of guard than Cooper, Butler also could still be on the board in the Blazers/Bucks range. Butler is more of a combo guard but can work on or off the ball and has similar versatility defensively, qualities that Stone has been known to seek in previous moves.
Ayo Dosunmu, G, Illinois: As with Butler, Dosunmu was an All-American who could offer unusual versatility as a player in the final third of the first round. Pre-draft evaluations could influence opinions but he has shown potential as a shooter and playmaker with a competitive fire defensively.
Jalen Johnson, F, Duke: Johnson’s tough season at Duke has led to a wide variety of opinions but he has the sort of upside, with ballhandling skills and great size, that could make him a good gamble for a team with three first-round picks. He could go in the top 10, late lottery or be a player that slides on draft night.
Tre Mann, G, Florida: Mann could go considerably earlier but there is some potential to slip, which would make him good value if he makes it to the Bucks/Blazers picks. Mann has versatility to play either guard spot with shooting range that should translate.