WORTH GAMBLE?
USC big man Evan Mobley’s vast potential can’t be ignored.
In five years, some might think the draft decision the Rockets make this month will have been easy.
That’s the way it often goes with the advantage of hindsight, and particularly among those judging the wisdom of moves made that came down to predicting the future of young men barely old enough to vote but still too young to enter the casinos at summer league.
That’s the nature of the business, now more than ever. There are no Tim Duncans at the top of draft boards with a full four-year term of evidence to evaluate. There is instead Evan Mobley. While each of the presumed first four players — Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green and Mobley — are one year removed from high school and only Suggs and Mobley have celebrated their 20th birthdays (last month), Mobley especially offers an intriguing, challenging, perhaps even vexing combination of enormous potential and foreboding red flags.
Few seem more likely to bring the “how could they have chosen/passed on …” reactions when the 2021 draft is evaluated one day.
Mobley could be a life-changing talent to build around, perhaps even measuring up to the Rockets’ celebrated legacy of bigs. Or he might be unable to play up to his draft position while others who were still on the board become stars.
The former Southern Cal standout does have obvious defensive star potential, a rare mix of elite rim protection with the potential ability to switch on screens as has become vital in this era of prolific 3-point shooting. He remains vertical around the basket but also is disciplined enough out on the floor that he does not have the issue with reaching that is common with young big men. His switchability would make him a good fit with, rather than a duplication of, Christian Wood.
He is long, a 7-footer with a 7-4 wingspan. He can excel in drop coverages but is agile enough to take on different pick-and-roll responsibilities.
He also can tend to react rather than anticipate defensively. His talent allowed that on the college level, but it won’t work in the NBA.
Mobley is also just 215 pounds with an extremely high center of gravity. As much as the NBA has moved away from posting up, there are plenty of full-sized centers happy to bang.
Other similar prospects have added strength; Giannis Antetokounmpo went from being able to slide under doors to being built to knock them over. Some haven’t needed bulk; Kevin Durant’s skills are so unstoppable that questions about his predraft bench press seem as irrelevant as asking about his ability to knit.
But if Mobley needs help in matchups, can he be considered elite defensively? Teams can scheme help, an option the Rockets did not have when several veterans were out last season.
But a defensive star is not supposed to need help.
Meanwhile, his rebounding in college — among the skills that translate most reliably to the pros — does not suggest that he’ll excel on the boards.
Then again, Mobley seems ideal for the current game. He is a thoroughly modern big man who can face the basket and fit nicely in Rockets coach Stephen Silas’ preferred five-out offense. His shot appears built to grow into a weapon, either off the dribble or with floor-spacing range. His handle is tight and can take him to his spots. His passing skills are outstanding for a player so young.
He also could be easily moved by physical defenders, and though his shooting stroke is remarkably good, he did not take many 3s (1.2 per game) or make a high percentage (30 percent) at USC.
As with the other top picks, Mobley was identified as a top prospect from the start of his teens. He has not only dealt with that pressure and the weight of expectations, he has had the experiences that come with it, both with a top AAU program (Compton Magic) and USA Basketball (with the FIBA World Cup U17 team in 2018 and FIBA World Cup U19 team in 2019).
Unlike others with such precocious talent, he did not typically dominate. His combination of skills and size would allow that, but he often seems to blend in and even disappear for stretches.
Players should never be measured by one game, good or bad, but it would be difficult to look at the game against Utah in which he did not attempt a shot and not wonder about his assertiveness. USC won easily, but this is an opportunity to draft a star rather than a highly effective role player.
On the other end of the spectrum, he went for 29 points in the Pac-12 tournament against Colorado, carrying teammates when they struggled.
“I feel like I’m a big that is very versatile, can space the floor, spread the floor,” Mobley told ESPN on lottery night. “I’m very agile. Whenever a big is bigger than me, I can use my speed to go around him, and also my outside range.”
That sounds good, but in keeping with his typically humble nature, not much of a job interview promise.
Still, it is not difficult to see an enormously high ceiling. There is risk but also a chance to look up in four or five years and see that there was an Anthony Davis or Chris Bosh — or even a taller Rudy Tomjanovich, the Rockets’ previous No. 2 pick — there for the taking.