Top prospect is still not a sure thing
There was no display of Cade Cunningham’s Pistons’ uniform after the draft lottery. Marketing efforts in Detroit featuring the presumptive first pick of the NBA draft have not begun.
The people, however, have spoken. Cunningham took in a Tigers game and was welcomed with chants of “We want Cade!” That should seal it.
Cunningham did subsequently meet with the Pistons’ brass. He put up some shots at the practice facility. He shared social media posts seeming very at home in Detroit.
The Pistons might continue to weigh options, including offers for their prized first pick. But to scouts and other executives, there remains no question about who will go first when the draft begins on Thursday.
Cunningham had been expected to be the pick throughout the season and since. The results of the lottery did not seem to bring potential to change that and haven’t.
He is not, however, quite the sort of sure thing, no discussion necessary first pick that would inspire executives to bring his uniform to the lottery or viral videos of ticket office celebrations.
“He’s not Zion (Williamson,)” one team executive said, citing the most recent no-brainer No. 1. “That’s fair. That’s real. I think every single team would agree on that.”
That is not all that brings consensus. Though Cunningham might fall short of the historic surething No. 1s, scouts are consistent about their evaluations of his strengths, weaknesses and potential. In conversations with four NBA executives, each responding anonymously to allow them to speak freely, it was clear what Cunningham is expected to bring.
“(Scouts) like his size,” one scout said with Cunningham listed at 6-8, 220 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan. “They like his ability to be a playmaker. He has versatility to be a primary playmaker, but also a secondary playmaker. And his shooting is also NBA caliber with NBA range. Of course, in today’s NBA game, that’s very valuable.”
It’s not Cunningham’s shooting or passing that makes him so coveted. It is the variety of skills in a player of his size that is considered special and likely to allow him to excel. Cunningham set up more points than he scored when handling the ball in pick-and-roll. He had an assist-to-turnover ratio of eight. Though he is able to pass or finish with either hand, more than half his shots came with pull-up jumpers or floaters, rather than on drives to the rim.
“He has a translatable NBA game,” one executive said. “In this day and age in the NBA, it’s rewarded so richly when you have a big playmaker, similar to like Ben Simmons, a guy that can not only score, but handle and pass. It really simplifies the game. It really complements and benefits players of that nature with that skillset.
“He’s not the most athletic guy, but he’s got good physical size, he’s got good tools and he’s got good physical ability. Talent wise, he stands out amongst the group.”
Said another, “He’s very large. He’s very skilled. And there’s nothing he’s not good at. Then, there’s all these ifs that are much, much harder. But he’s got really good NBA size to have that high a skill level.”
The “ifs” are almost entirely about a lack of athleticism for a player taken first in the draft. But that is generally not a concern because it has not limited Cunningham. It likely helps that Dallas’ Luka Doncic, who was the third pick of a draft amid questions about his athleticism, has been so outstanding as a similarly large playmaker.
“One of the drawbacks is he is not an elite athlete,” a scout said.
“But I think his size and his ability to get to spots on the floor with the ball with his strength sort of helps you get past his lack of athleticism.
“Luka helps, showing you don’t have to have explosive speed. You can still use change of speed, change of direction and strength to get to your spots.”
Though Cunningham has long been on the NBA’s radar having shined with USA Basketball, there is some projecting necessary because the Oklahoma State roster did not allow him to work with the spacing he will have in the NBA. Still, Cunningham could be the most sure-thing selection of the top
“No. 1, the size/skill combination is unique,” another executive said. “Usually, you don’t have 6-8 passing, shooting, relatively athletic body. He has a chance to be a pretty good defender, a two-way guy. Even worse case, he’ll be a pretty darn good, second or third middle guy, so you have a high floor, as well.
“Not even the floor — that’s part of it — but I think it’s even more likely he hits what you hope he’ll become. You can dream on any of these guys. But it’s not just his floor his high. His average expectation is pretty high, too. Whereas some of the other guys are much more boom/bust.”
None of the executives interviewed thought that could keep Cunningham from going first, some describing that not as a nobrainer, but as an easy choice. Still, even for the top player in a strong top of the draft, there is no sure thing.
“The reality is we don’t know,” one executive said. “It’s a three- or four-year process. It’ll be interesting. But there is some good talent at the top this year. I do think it’s Cade head and shoulders above everybody else.”