FORGING A NEW PATH
In era of rebuilding, Rockets GM Stone, front office change approach to free agency
If draft night or the season that preceded it were not enough to demonstrate how much times have changed for the Rockets, free agency should do it.
The Rockets, coming off a 17-55 season and a draft night haul of four first-round picks, are not big game hunting, no longer able to consider themselves a destination for players seeking an immediate championship run. They are not about to think in terms of a final piece to a contending puzzle.
Those days are, for now, behind them. Instead, a team that just drafted four teenagers to go with last season’s youth movement is more likely to look for free agents who complement their next generation than define it.
Last season, the Rockets targeted Christian Wood, entering free agency armed with a mid-level exception and landing their center in a sign-and-trade. They had a void to fill and added a player they believed would excel next to James Harden in another championship run or be a foundational piece if they moved their star to begin the rebuild.
This season, they again have their non-taxpayer mid-level exception, starting at about $9.5 million. But the free-agency pursuits are likely to be heavily influenced by the rebuilding pieces already in place with the Rockets looking to add players who either have potential to grow with the young core, to help them improve or both.
Teams may begin negotiating at 5 p.m. Monday and may sign free agents beginning at 11:01 a.m. Friday.
The Rockets are likely to look for players to fit with Wood, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green, which could mean chasing a more defensive-minded frontcourt player that either might fit well, such as Bulls center Daniel Theis, or has room to improve while bringing defensive strengths, such as the Grizzlies’ Justise Winslow, or some combination of both, as with the Trail Blazers Zach Collins.
One of the Rockets’ own free agents, David Nwaba, could fit that description well as an outstanding defensive player able to match up with fours in small lineups but who regressed as a 3-point shooter before his season ended with a wrist injury. Signed to a two-year deal in the 2019-20 season, the Rockets have early Bird rights, giving the Rockets the ability to sign Nwaba for more than he is likely to command elsewhere.
Things get more complicated with Kelly Olynyk. He showed an ability and willingness to mentor along with a versatile offensive game that meshed well with Wood and could work with draft picks Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba as they develop. But he is not the sort of defensive anchor a team playing so many rookies or still-learning players might need.
The Rockets acquired Olynyk in a trade with the Heat and hold Bird rights, allowing them to exceed the salary cap as needed to sign him. But he also could be valued by contenders, as he has been in Boston and Miami. There also could be benefits to signing Olynyk to a large but short contract as an eventual trade piece willing to embrace the Rockets’ “path,” as general manager Rafael Stone has called their process.
Avery Bradley, acquired with Olynyk in that deal with Miami, will become a free agent after the team’s decision not to exercise its option on the final season of his contract, worth $5.9 million. Though still a strong defensive player, after struggling with his shot all of last season, Bradley would not fit in their timeline as a player in his 30s on a team adding players not yet in their 20s.
The Rockets have until Monday to extend a $6.4 million qualifying offer to forward D.J. Wilson. Though still an interesting prospect, he would not seem to figure in their plans, particularly after drafting two frontcourt players. Similarly, guard Sterling Brown, who played well before his season ended when he was assaulted in Miami, might not fit with so many guards under contract, further demonstrating how much things have changed for the Rockets in free agency since last season.
Dante Exum, who never played for the Rockets after being acquired in the Harden trade, will become a free agent. Armoni Brooks and Anthony Lamb will be restricted free agents if they receive a qualifying offer with both expected to play for the Rockets’ summer league team.
The next season of forward KJ Martin’s contract becomes guaranteed if he remains on the roster past Monday. He is still considered a young asset to develop even with Thursday’s additions.
The sudden arrival of prospects will, however, make Rockets limited in free agency in other ways, with 13 players, not including any of their own free agents, already under contract.
They do have some tools to use in free agency. In addition to their full mid-level exception, the Rockets have their bi-annual exception ($3.7 million) and four trade exceptions including one at a near mid-level $8.2 million and another at $5.1 million.
If the Rockets spend their full mid-level or add a player in a signand-trade using one of their trade exceptions, they would trigger a hard cap. That could limit them in subsequent deals but they could remain under that cap by enough to still have some wiggle room, enough that they the threat of a hard cap might not be a dealbreaker when they go free agent shopping.
How they shop, however, will like so much about the Rockets be very different. Though still looking for fit around an already crowded roster, the goals will be about additions working with players they hope will become stars, rather than adding to or acquiring veterans that already are.