FREE AGENT BREAKDOWN
HIGH-DOLLAR STARS
The free agent class lost many of the potential stars when contract extensions dramatically reduced the field and free-for-all fun. Of the top players, most are likely to stay right where they are, whether or not Kawhi Leonard and
Chris Paul decide to head into free agency or pick up their options. Even most of the next high-dollar types are restricted free agents, potentially diminishing offers and, in some cases, dragging out the process. There are always a few stunners, but this free agent season they seem more likely to come from players landing larger-than-expected contracts.
MOVING ON UP
With so few teams shopping with cap room, the cap having nudged up only slightly after the COVID-19 season kept revenue in check, it could be Bird rights and sign-and-trade season for many free agents. Many seem unlikely to go anywhere, with Norman Powell, Tim Hardaway Jr. and possibly Gary Trent very much in their teams’ plans. That could benefit Evan Fournier. The market for Kelly Olynyk and Victor Oladipo, traded for each other at the trade deadline, especially could be interesting. Olynyk fits on teams from contenders to the rebuilding Rockets. The Heat traded for Oladipo with plans to keep him long-term, but he is coming off an injury-diminished season and could drop to the
BEYOND MID-LEVEL
There does not seem to be a Christian Wood — an up-and- coming player who would consider mid-level but be a value at more — in the bunch. The players in that price range generally are well-known, coming off seasons in high-profile roles. The Lakers’ acquisition of Russell Westbrook will make things interesting for Dennis Schroder. He turned down a four-year, $84 million extension, which would seem tough to get. But some of the teams with cap space — New York, Chicago — could be looking for a point guard. While Schroder struggled late in the season after a COVID absence, Reggie Jackson had a breakthrough season. But as valuable as he was to the Clippers, he signed with them as a free agent after a buyout so they don’t have Bird rights, possibly making it difficult to compete with offers he could get.
MIDDLE OF THE PACK
Though there are few teams with cap room, there is a good number armed with the full, non-tax mid-level exception, including the Rockets. The surprises usually come from this group with teams spending a bit more in the early hours to be sure to land their targets, like shoppers when the doors open on Black Friday. More veterans — Nicolas Batum, Goran Dragic, Rudy Gay, Blake Griffin — fall into this group than likely will get the full mid-level. It could be worth watching some of the breakthrough players — Talen Horton-Tucker, Cameron Payne, Bobby Portis — to determine the market and perhaps provide a few fireworks.
FOR BARGAIN HUNTERS
Players more likely to get contracts in the tax-payer mid-level ($5.94 million) or room mid-level ($4.9 million) range than the full mid-level
Contenders looking for difference makers could find good value with veterans unlikely to command richer contracts. There might not be a lot of young value to be had for teams looking to grab a bargain to build with, but there might be a few.